Image is of legal adviser to Israel's foreign ministry Tal Becker and British jurist Malcolm Shaw at the ICJ hearing.

The ICJ case against Israel might not achieve much for the Palestinian cause directly, given that Israeli politicians have explicitly stated that the Hague will not stop them - and I believe them. The Resistance will be what stops them, and they are doing quite well for themselves. Hezbollah has hit highly sensitive and important Israeli military sites over the last couple weeks, and in general persist in several border attacks every day. The battles in Iraq and Syria also continue. Hamas remains largely intact, and is successfully forcing Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip to retreat, and other parts of the Gazan Resistance are continuing to battle down in Khan Yunis. And, last but not least, Yemen is firmly dedicated to the blockade, warding off another ship literally minutes before I started writing this paragraph.

What the ICJ is battling over isn't Palestine and Israel - not really - but the legitimacy of international law itself, and to what degree victimized countries can rely on it to solve problems, versus needing to take more militant routes for justice. In a weird sense, it might be an L for Israel either way. If international law sides with Palestine, then when Israel refuses to stop, it will invalidate international law. If international law sides with Israel, then it will invalidate international law. There is no conceivable way for the West to come out of this looking good.

The South African portion detailing Israeli atrocities against Gaza was largely ignored by the western media. They have instead, obviously, decided to focus on the Israeli portion. Their defense appears to amount to "We didn't do it, Hamas did it. And if we did do it, it doesn't matter, because that's just urban warfare for you. Please get this whole thing thrown out on a very dubious technicality so we don't have to advance to the next stage."

From Craig Murray, who has been physically going to the Hague:

It is important to realise this. Israel is hoping to win on their procedural points about existence of dispute, unilateral assurances and jurisdiction. The obvious nonsense they spoke about the damage to homes and infrastructure being caused by Hamas, trucks entering Gaza and casualty figures, was not serious. They did not expect the judges to believe any of this. The procedural points were for the court. The rest was mass propaganda for the media.

...I am sure the judges want to get out of this and they may go for the procedural points. But there is a real problem with Israel’s “no dispute” argument. If accepted, it would mean that a country committing genocide can simply not reply to a challenge, and then legal action will not be possible because no reply means “no dispute”. I hope that absurdity is obvious to the judges. But they may of course wish not to notice it…

What do I think will happen? Some sort of “compromise”. The judges will issue provisional measures different to South Africa’s request, asking Israel to continue to take measures to protect the civilian population, or some such guff. Doubtless the State Department have drafted something like this for President of the court Donoghoe already.

I hope I am wrong. I would hate to give up on international law. One thing I do know for certain. These two days in the Hague were absolutely crucial for deciding if there is any meaning left in notions of international law and human rights. I still believe action by the court could cause the US and UK to back off and provide some measure of relief. For now, let us all pray or wish, each in our way, for the children of Gaza.

The weekly update is here on the website.

The Country of the Week is South Africa! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Tervell [he/him]
    ·
    8 months ago

    absolutely hilarious (in a this-is-fine sort of way) followup to my previous post about American ICBMs, holy shit (archived)

    Sentinel ICBM incurs ‘critical’ cost breach, at risk of cancellation without SECDEF certification

    The Minuteman III replacement’s costs ballooned by 37 percent and will take about two years longer than expected as officials reportedly discover hidden complications of silo construction.

    WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s replacement for its nuclear-tipped Minuteman III ballistic missile fleet has suffered a “critical” cost breach and could be delayed by as much as two years, a service spokesperson confirmed to Breaking Defense, a setback for the program that officials have long warned could run into trouble.

    The service notified Congress Thursday that LGM-35A Sentinel “has exceeded its initial cost projections,” the spokesperson said, prompting what’s known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach. According to the spokesperson, the Sentinel program’s 2020 baseline program acquisition unit cost of $118 million per missile — the sum of development, construction and procurement — increased by “at least 37 percent” to approximately $162 million in 2020 dollars, prompting a “critical” breach that requires Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to certify the program to stave off its cancellation.

    The $96 billion Sentinel program is now estimated at about $131.5 billion in current dollars, Bloomberg reported, a hefty sum driven by unforeseen complications with silo and launch center construction. The program’s current objective for initial operational capability (IOC) is June 2029, which the Air Force spokesperson said could be delayed by as much as two years as a result of the issues.

    A top modernization effort for the Defense Department, the Sentinel program’s issues have already drawn congressional scrutiny. And with strong backing from lawmakers, it seems unlikely the program will be terminated. “Sentinel is absolutely necessary for the future of our nuclear deterrent. I’m committed to conducting vigorous oversight of the program and ensuring the Air Force follows through on making the necessary changes to address the cost overruns while continuing to advance the program,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., said in a statement today. “The Department must ensure that Sentinel is ready in time to replace the current ICBMs before they reach the end of their lives. Failure is not an option,” he added.

    Northrop Grumman, which won the Sentinel contract in 2020, has struggled with supply chain woes, workforce shortages and clearance issues, the Government Accountability Office warned in June 2023. Officials recently have also been vexed by the program’s challenges, with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall lamenting its “unknown unknowns.”

    also to reiterate this bit from the previous post:

    On 14 December 2019, it was announced that Northrop Grumman had won the competition to build the future ICBM. Northrop won by default, as their bid was at the time the only bid left to be considered for the GBSD program (Boeing had dropped out of the bidding contest earlier in 2019).

    So there isn't a backup plan here - the only company that can do this is struggling to do it. There was a discussion earlier in the thread about whether the US could restart its war machine, and, uh... maybe they straight up can't? Like, we're not talking about tanks or artillery shells here, these are ICBMs, a key element of nuclear deterrence, something considered necessary even in peacetime (at least by the ghouls in charge). I guess the Americans better hope the 14 nuclear ballistic subs they have still work... or adopt Jim Hacker thought

    • nohaybanda [he/him]
      ·
      8 months ago

      the only company that can do this is struggling to do it.

      They might be, cause deindustrialization is mf like that, but it could just be more grift. "So a key component of your nuclear deterrence depends on little ol' me and there's no one else you can turn to? Gee, I don't know if I could do it, really. Certainly not for a measly 90 billion."

      The fact that US depends on private capital to maintain its nuclear weapons programme is easily on of the top 5 certified clown moments in this circus of a nation.

      • Tervell [he/him]
        ·
        8 months ago

        but it could just be more grift

        yeah, certainly possible. The previous article had this great bit:

        The US Air Force said: "The Air Force will proceed with an aggressive and effective sole-source negotiation." in reference to Northrop's bid

        I guess their "aggressive and effective negotiation" was to, uh, just give them even more money? Aggressively emptying my wallet to the guy mugging me.

        • Frank [he/him, he/him]
          ·
          8 months ago

          The Air Force will proceed with an aggressive and effective sole-source negotiation.

          That certainly is a syntactically correct sentence.

          You couldn't make America up. No one would believe it.

      • RyanGosling [none/use name]
        ·
        8 months ago

        I was really into aliens and UFOs and the conspiracies involving governments when I was a kid

        The mystique of Area 51 and the whole alien-government conspiracy was completely wiped out the moment I learned that Area 51 was guarded by not elite spec ops soldiers, but random contractors. The equivalent of mall cops. And I was only in middle school.

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]
        ·
        8 months ago

        They might be, cause deindustrialization is mf like that, but it could just be more grift.

        Por que no los dos?

    • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      8 months ago

      has struggled with supply chain woes, workforce shortages and clearance issues,

      hahaha When decriminalization at a federal level and increasing sanctions on the rest of the world supply chain bite you in the ass.

    • ziggurter [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      8 months ago

      'Member when Obama allocated literally a trillion dollars to "modernize our nuclear weapons arsenal" over a ten-year period? Ten years later....

    • CascadeOfLight [he/him]
      ·
      8 months ago

      My god, I thought this was only theoretical...! It's- it's a Nunn-McCurdy breach! GORDON! GET OUT OF THE TEST CHAMBER! stop-posting-amogus

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]
      ·
      8 months ago

      When your decaying imperialist state literally can't build a concrete lined hole in the ground with infinity moneys.

      “unknown unknowns.” Those durned 'unknown unknowns" of building a concrete hole in the ground and sticking a missile in it.

      • carpoftruth [any, any]M
        ·
        8 months ago

        I visited the decommissioned titan missile museum in Arizona and the silo itself is actually a pretty incredible piece of engineering.

        • Frank [he/him, he/him]
          ·
          8 months ago

          Fair, fair. I understand they do need to do a lot of sophisticated stuff, like fuel the missile automatically very quickly. The closest I've ever been is playing airsoft on the complex of support buildings at decommissioned missile bases.

          • carpoftruth [any, any]M
            ·
            8 months ago

            What I'm thinking of is the hardening of the structure against enemy strikes. As I recall, the silo I visited consisted of two big concrete blocks, one for the missile and one for the crew to live in. The crew section was entirely separated from the ground and was "suspended" by a big shock absorber. I also recall the huge metal door that separated the silo from the crew chamber. Even 60 or whatever years after construction, the 1-2 tonne door moved really smoothly on its hinges and sealed well.

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]M
      ·
      8 months ago

      when the US can't even maintain their nuclear missiles properly, you know it's all joever

      • supafuzz [comrade/them]
        ·
        8 months ago

        Please President Xi, come take charge of this collapsing rogue state's disused missile supply before the warheads fall into even worse hands

    • PorkrollPosadist [he/him, they/them]
      ·
      8 months ago

      Northrop Grumman, which won the Sentinel contract in 2020, has struggled with supply chain woes, workforce shortages and clearance issues

      Anecdotally, working in manufacturing, a lot of good machinists are functioning drug users. At my last job (which didn't drug test) a number of the most experienced machinists were functioning opioid addicts. At my current job (which did drug test) the majority of machinists I work with are stoners who either cheated the test or stopped smoking for a while. Ordinary shops have been struggling to find experienced workers and have been lowering their standards over the past several years. I can't imagine how much smaller the pool of workers who qualify for security clearances is.