Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.

We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.

The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.

Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • xiaohongshu [none/use name]
    ·
    2 months ago

    It’s never been so over for Russia:

    More and more data indicate a slowdown in the real sector of the economy. For example, the PMI index in the manufacturing industries fell to 49.5 points in September. For comparison, in August it was 52.1 points (information from S&P Global). Let me remind you that a PMI above 50 points indicates high activity in industry - indirect evidence of economic growth. Below 50 points - a decline.

    Loading on Russian Railways in September also fell by 6.3% compared to last September. Cargo turnover is minus 6%. Loading for January-September is minus 4%. Also evidence of a decline.

    Although the indicators are influenced by a whole range of reasons, from a political point of view, the situation has become extremely clear. From now on, all failures in the domestic economy will be EXPLAINED ONLY by the malicious policy of the Central Bank.

    Just as a year ago, failures at the front were explained only by the leadership of the current Secretary of the Security Council. From this point of view, the situation inspires a certain optimism. The resignation of the head of the Bank of Russia may become a reality against the backdrop of an economic downturn.

    Let Elvira Nabiullina explain to the deputies that monetary policy does not have an overwhelming effect on economic growth. For society, she has finally become an undesirable figure who must be removed. Otherwise, we will not win. The political risks for Nabiullina and her team are becoming very high. Judging by the dynamics of the oncoming events, there is still a year and a half left to wait.

    The libs have won.

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      ·
      2 months ago

      For example, the PMI index in the manufacturing industries fell to 49.5 points in September.

      Worth noting that this is in line with the average worldwide manufacturing PMI; except for a brief blip earlier this year, the world's been in a manufacturing recession for a couple years now. I'd imagine it's mostly Europe dragging it down, but they cannot (yet) be dismissed as an economic force, they are a pretty significant part of the global economy. So that has inevitably had knock-on effects everywhere else.

      Other than that, this is a fine glass of Russian doomerism. Classic, sweet, lovely mouthfeel. I'm not a fan of the part at the end where they imply there's a year and a half left, usually my Russian doomers give the country only a few months before total collapse, but that's all I really have for criticism.

        • xiaohongshu [none/use name]
          ·
          2 months ago

          The US is afraid of Europe, not Russia.

          Russia can replace everything that Europe is relying on the US on - from raw materials to military equipments to educated labor force. This cooperation needs to be stopped at all cost so Europe can be fully vassalized.

          If the US is to have war with China, they need to make sure Europe doesn’t defect when it’s not looking. So sinking Europe first becomes the priority. Russia just gets caught in the US-Europe inter-imperalist warfare.

            • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
              ·
              2 months ago

              The US has also been hostile to Europe for forever, they got in plenty of slapfights over the usage of the dollar vs gold (or later, the euro) in the 20th century. De Gaulle battled the US over it in the 1960s for instance. The current US strategy of using NATO as a guaranteed market for US weaponry (to the detriment of European economies) is just a continuation of the Cold War strategy; it was dual-purpose in stopping the Soviets from starting a war, but even so.

                • xiaohongshu [none/use name]
                  ·
                  2 months ago

                  Europe was able to make a comeback after the dissolution of the USSR, because the Soviet industries were never financialized, and Western capitalists who came in and plundered the cheap assets were all able to make huge amount of finance capital off it that both the US and Europe were able to hyper-leap into the finance capital plane. This was how the European Union and the euro currency zone came about in the 1990s.

                  An analogy was how the defeat of the Southern semi-feudal slaveowning class by the Northern industrialists during the America Civil War enabled America to hyper-leap into the industrial capital plane, off of the huge amount of capital they consolidated from the plantation owners in the South.

                  The Industrial Revolution that kicked off in England and France in the 1800s revived the slave economy in the American South due to the huge amount of raw materials they suddenly needed for the textile industries (like cotton) and started to threaten the industrial North. That was the real reason for the American Civil War to end slavery by the Union.

                  So too did the collapse of the USSR and the plunder of its industrial assets revived the European ambition to compete with the US, but this time in the hyper-financial sphere.

        • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
          ·
          2 months ago

          You should ignore for a moment the same theories people keep posting here and look at what people like Rand corp actualy say about Russia.

          Here this is a great paper by them. Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia(2024)

          It shows exactly what they consider to be the relevant points about Russia today. In general these neolibs always see Russia as a geopolitical rival, they don't believe to have "won" per se because there is a deep fundamental distrust and a belief(also racist) that they'll never be truly on board with US interests.

          The chart on that page is excellent actually.

          I've highlighted the key points from both groups below.

          spoiler

          World A: After the Less Favorable WarWar outcomes

          The conflict ends after a long war of attrition

          China provides lethal aid to Russia

          The war ends in a weak ceasefire

          Ukraine suffers modest territorial setbacks

          Strategic setting in the immediate aftermath of the war

          Russia is primarily imperialist and also security-motivated

          Russia is weakened by the war but poised to rearm

          Russia-China relations are very close

          Ukraine is focused on territorial reconquest

          Ukraine is economically devastated

          NATO is divided over wartime policy toward Russia and Ukraine

          The U.S. shift to the Indo-Pacific region is limited by the war in Europe

          There are U.S.-China tensions because of Beijing's support for Moscow

          Global economic fragmentation occurs because of sanctions and counter-sanctions

          And

          Hardline Approach

          Strategic stability

          Reject arms control negotiations

          Develop new nuclear capabilities and expand force posture

          Deploy more BMD installations

          Deploy intermediate-range ground-based missiles to Europe

          Military presence in Europe

          Sustain elevated force levels

          Deploy more forces into Eastern Europe

          Reject talks on limiting conventional forces in Europe

          Security relationship with Ukraine

          Provide assistance that enables offensive operations

          Integrate Ukraine's military into NATO

          Support open door and Ukrainian membership

          Policy toward other non-NATO former Soviet states

          Support Georgia's NATO integration and membership

          Increase security cooperation with regional states

          Roll back Russian influence

          Economic relations with Russia

          Sustain most wartime sanctions

          As you can see, its both frightening and elucidating how painfuly obvious they are about their goals and how they consider getting there.

          Ukraine is a plan gone wrong and that plan is to contain Russian interests. For example, they've appropriated Imperialism mean a vulgar term completely opposite to Lenin's. Rand corp ghouls and everyone in Washington truly believe Russia is an imperialist competitor.

          Here is another of their research papers from 2019

          Despite these vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a powerful country that still manages to be a U.S. peer competitor in a few key domains. Recognizing that some level of competition with Russia is inevitable, RAND researchers conducted a qualitative assessment of “cost-imposing options” that could unbalance and overextend Russia. Such cost-imposing options could place new burdens on Russia, ideally heavier burdens than would be imposed on the United States for pursuing those options.

          In the Geopolitical Cost-Imposing Options they included "Provide lethal aid to Ukraine" as medium-high cost and success rates.

          In Economic Cost-Imposing Options they put "Impose deeper trade and financial sanctions" as high and clearly listed "Increase Europe’s ability to import LNG from sources other than Russia" which was literaly the opposite of what happened and the reason for EU's crash.

          Further below you can read the section Land and Multidomain Cost-Imposing Measures and basicaly note how all options revolve around increasing US military presence in Europe and more militarization of NATO.

          It is clear to me these people would not be suggesting this back in 2019 if they didn't think Russia was a real competitor.

          Of course I don't think these people are particularly correct or even 100% truthful, but to have a pulse on what neolibs think does require to read and listen to what they actualy say.

          Unfortunately we have not moved on from what Michael Hudson popularized in '22. The idea the US somehow wanted this war just to destroy the EU is not accurate. For example the US did not believe energy prices would skyrocket, they even tried the price cap so they could reduce Russian profits and stop the inflation crisis worldwide.

      • xiaohongshu [none/use name]
        ·
        2 months ago

        The libs have compromised with the state - the state gets control of the military industries (Belousov becomes Minister of Defense) and will be able to spend the money to finish the job in Ukraine, but they are regaining control of the rest of the economy.

        Moscow and Washington are indeed trying to re-establish the IMF mission, but was unexpectedly blocked by Euro libs.

      • xiaohongshu [none/use name]
        ·
        2 months ago

        https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9824219f5c2940beb4d91b9abc0a2f7b

        https://www.interfax.ru/business/984591

        It’s so over

              • AssortedBiscuits [they/them]
                ·
                2 months ago

                Liberals are also Westophiles. Perhaps it's a reflection of liberalism's birthplace being Western Europe, but I have yet to see a single liberal on this Earth that isn't also a Westophile. And as Russia distances itself further from the West and ordinary Russians de-Westernize themselves, the Westophilia of liberals will be a complete liability from them seizing power. At a certain point, they'll be seen as mentally colonized traitors who kowtow to their Western masters.