On the one hand, we're seeing the consent manufactury kick into overdrive and a lot of state department goblins seem to be absolutely itching for a fresh round of meddling. Cuba as a client state would open the door to all manner of renewed imperial nightmares in the carribean and South America.
On the other hand, it feels like most people's reception of the situation outside of dedicated chuds and Floridians (but I repeat myself) is muted, and I've already seen a few small anti-intervention protests pop up. After two decades of war, with a domestic civil society whose coherency is hanging by a thread and a global presence that is increasingly challenged, I feel like a flubbed regime change effort there would be the true beginning of the end for the U.S.' empire.
If this is a dumb-dumb take, please don't hesitate to tell me so.
I think the Biden admin saw what Trump's ratcheting up of the embargo was doing plus the downturn in the the economy with the drop in tourism, and decided this was an "opportunity". Really make the people of Cuba feel the pain. Because a US military intervention is still out of the question. And I don't think a coup is on the table, because you actually need some internal opposition; and by and large the Cubans are dedicated to the project that they are trying to build.
The idea is to so completely demoralize the people of Cuba that they lose the will to stand up for themselves. Make them suffer so much that no matter their ideological dedication to socialism and anti-imperialism, they decide it's not worth the cost. And I don't think the US would necessarily demand a US viceroy or even a massive change in government. What the US really wants is the ability for US capital to own Cuba. And I mean own all of Cuba.
I've been reading about East Germany, and that's exactly what the US wants to happen. Open up things up, tank their economy, and let US businesses swoop in and buy assets at bargain basement prices. Probably even let the gusanos buy "their" family land back (West Germany did exactly this, collective farms were destroyed and former Junker owners were allowed to buy back their old land at 40 cents on the dollar). I don't think the US cares if Cuba more or less keeps their political system in place. They just want the assets.
Thankfully, I think the people of Cuba know this and understand that surrendering their economy to the Americans will only result in even more severe pain.
That seems reasonable enough for the general overall idea, but I don't know if it's necessarily the Biden administration spearheading it, since there's kind of the expectation to continue Obama's thawing policy that Trump trampled on just for spite. Also despite the media pushing the narrative hard, the reality of the protests seems like they're quite small and not really indicative of a major shift in the Cuban public. So the media narrative itself seems to be the op above all else. Chapo's guest on the last episode floated the idea that it may be less of an attempt to manufacture consent for further aggression toward Cuba, and more about manufacturing dissent against trying to thaw relations once again like Obama.
Guess we'll see one way or another in the next couple years.