And not ridiculous things that are theoretically possible, like the Taliban does a 180 out of nowhere and converts to socialism and the imperialist states do a 180 out of nowhere and decide that a socialist middle east is cool.

I used to think that the best thing that could happen is a Marshall Plan for the Middle East, but now, I'm not so sure that would be good.

  • HarryLime [any]
    ·
    3 years ago

    The Taliban could join Belt and Road, and Afghanistan develops a real economy. It would take time, but the contradictions the increased wealth and development create would either force the Taliban to evolve, or a new government would have to be created that is more suited to Afghanistan's new economy. The Taliban has always represented the rural Pashtun lifestyle and values, and that has no appeal if you have the opportunity to live any other way. Afghanistan is sitting on like twelve trillion dollars worth of mineral resources, and what the Taliban does with it will be interesting to say the least.

        • activated [he/him]
          ·
          3 years ago

          If an organization got its start purging leftists, then no, it's not going to lead to a leftist revolution. There's another path for failing material conditions.

          • HarryLime [any]
            ·
            3 years ago

            OP asked for the best case scenario, and I gave what I thought that would be. That doesn't mean I think it will actually happen, which should be obvious if you tried actually understanding what I wrote instead of being a dickhead.

            • activated [he/him]
              ·
              3 years ago

              Yeah man the best case scenario is that all of the bad people will get spontaneous aneurysms and only the good people in Afghanistan will start a utopia.

          • snott_morrison [comrade/them]
            ·
            3 years ago

            No ones saying it's gonna lead to a leftist revolution. A lot of commentators seem to think that the Taliban really do want to rule as some sort of stable government thought. Diplomatic ties with China is going to help them to do that.

            • activated [he/him]
              ·
              3 years ago

              Yes, they do want a stable government, like most governments.

              They will get it too. A combination of a reputation for brutality as well as genuine buy in from a lot of the male population will give them a mandate too. Turns out that the US propping up the sexual violence against children that the Taliban originally used as a uniting call was a bad one.

              So when material conditions worsen, people are unlikely to be able to do much, as they will have been kept uneducated, in fear, and without a better hope. They likely won't even blame the Taliban, as the Taliban will be able to, both justifiably and otherwise, blame US occupation for anything that goes wrong for a long time.

              Ultimately, they'll probably get to choose between some pseudo-imperialist economic reliance on outside nations, effectively sattelizing themselves, or a descent into full fascism.

              I think the latter is a real possibility. There's probably a lot of power going to their heads right now after they did in a few days what the US expected to take them months. Regardless of whether it's true or not, I think they'll view that as proof of military superiority. This easily sets the stage for expansionist fascism.

              • snott_morrison [comrade/them]
                ·
                3 years ago

                Yea it's pretty grim when you put it like that. At least without the US in there at least the country can move on from continual warfare, hopefully it isn't as bleak as it may seem.