And not ridiculous things that are theoretically possible, like the Taliban does a 180 out of nowhere and converts to socialism and the imperialist states do a 180 out of nowhere and decide that a socialist middle east is cool.
I used to think that the best thing that could happen is a Marshall Plan for the Middle East, but now, I'm not so sure that would be good.
The Taliban could join Belt and Road, and Afghanistan develops a real economy. It would take time, but the contradictions the increased wealth and development create would either force the Taliban to evolve, or a new government would have to be created that is more suited to Afghanistan's new economy. The Taliban has always represented the rural Pashtun lifestyle and values, and that has no appeal if you have the opportunity to live any other way. Afghanistan is sitting on like twelve trillion dollars worth of mineral resources, and what the Taliban does with it will be interesting to say the least.
If an organization got its start purging leftists, then no, it's not going to lead to a leftist revolution. There's another path for failing material conditions.
OP asked for the best case scenario, and I gave what I thought that would be. That doesn't mean I think it will actually happen, which should be obvious if you tried actually understanding what I wrote instead of being a dickhead.
Yeah man the best case scenario is that all of the bad people will get spontaneous aneurysms and only the good people in Afghanistan will start a utopia.
No ones saying it's gonna lead to a leftist revolution. A lot of commentators seem to think that the Taliban really do want to rule as some sort of stable government thought. Diplomatic ties with China is going to help them to do that.
Yes, they do want a stable government, like most governments.
They will get it too. A combination of a reputation for brutality as well as genuine buy in from a lot of the male population will give them a mandate too. Turns out that the US propping up the sexual violence against children that the Taliban originally used as a uniting call was a bad one.
So when material conditions worsen, people are unlikely to be able to do much, as they will have been kept uneducated, in fear, and without a better hope. They likely won't even blame the Taliban, as the Taliban will be able to, both justifiably and otherwise, blame US occupation for anything that goes wrong for a long time.
Ultimately, they'll probably get to choose between some pseudo-imperialist economic reliance on outside nations, effectively sattelizing themselves, or a descent into full fascism.
I think the latter is a real possibility. There's probably a lot of power going to their heads right now after they did in a few days what the US expected to take them months. Regardless of whether it's true or not, I think they'll view that as proof of military superiority. This easily sets the stage for expansionist fascism.
Yea it's pretty grim when you put it like that. At least without the US in there at least the country can move on from continual warfare, hopefully it isn't as bleak as it may seem.
Best case realistic scenario is that the Taliban accepts aid and development loans from China, and that the Chinese use economic pressure to get them to reform. China has close ties to Pakistan because of BRI, and Pakistan is one of the Taliban's oldest state allies. The PRC has also already met with Taliban leaders anticipating the transition. It's obviously a long shot, but it's a far better situation than what Yankee was doing.
China really does not tend to use economic pressure to get them to reform, it's a key reason that a lot of imperialised nations like Chinese development loans. they don't want outsiders deciding their politics. but that said, yeah I agree and think Chinese development is going to do so much more to build a nation than bombing the shit out of everybody for 20 years
One possibility is that the memory of occupation starts to fade, and the engine for religious fundamentalism starts to slow down. This depends a lot on Salafis and oil revenue though.
Another possibility is that there emerges a strongman who is anti-imperialist with a sort of social pluralism domestically, in the vein of Qaddafi or the Assads.
Whichever way, they're going to have to figure a lot of stuff out by themselves, and it's going to take a long time. But we always knew this.
" a Marshall Plan for the Middle East" sounds like some real coloniser shit, if it's the US doing it. the Taliban are bad, there is no two ways about it, but for one this does bring to an end the occupation and bombings of Afghanistan that escalated the violence far beyond what it would have been in Afghanistan had the coalition not invaded. the Taliban have said they have no issues with China's belt and road programme providing much needed infrastructure to the country. in the long term, we have no idea what will happen, but I wish all the best to the people of Afghanistan and hope that any development and outside aid comes with no imperialist strings attached so the country can develop and the people can free themselves from this cycle of pain
the Taliban have said they have no issues with China’s belt and road programme providing much needed infrastructure to the country.
I'm willing to bet the US will finance and train terrorist cells to attack this.
I have no doubt too. there is already opposition in Pakistan to a lot of the Chinese infrastructure by Baluchistani fighters, idk how much is linked to the US. a lot of people in Afghanistan still remember the Soviet intervention and communism is seen as this evil atheist anti Islamic force, but China tends to be very politically savy and not put their foot in it when it comes to foreign nations and their dommestic affairs. the Taliban, and the larger Jihadist forces, are not all of one mind on things it's always useful to remember, some of them probably really fucking hate China. there are also a few Uyghur terrorist groups in Afghanistan that are allied to the Taliban that I have absolutely 0 doubt at all the CIA is gonna hit up, or already has
I fully agree with you that it may very well be unsuccessful, but I do think they'll try it. You're right that China is more politically savvy, and I also think the Taliban seems fairly competent in terms of military strategy.
the Taliban, and other Jihadists, just spent about 40 years or so at war. they really REALLY know how the fuck to fight an asymmetrical war, and I am sure China knows that too. time will tell how things go
the cool thing about those ETIM guys in afghanistan is theyre right along the chinese border :blob-on-fire:
the US did de-list the ETIM as a terrorist organization earlier this year :what-the-hell:
yea what about an end to the 10 thousand horrific violent deaths that have occured every year the last couple decades
Probably more reliable infrastructure and less violence overall for the people in Afghanistan.
Less civilians will die but that's about the only upside I see. Under the rule of the Taliban it will make Saudi Arabia look progressive.
I agree with the sentiment that it is good that a foreign power is not meddling in Afghanistan, but people who live there that are deemed undesirable by the Taliban probably will hate their situation, not that they liked what they had before.
Probably not unless they join a Soviet Union type structure with other surrounding nations such as Iran and Pakistan. Afghanistan is an extremely rugged tough place to live. It is a country without sea access and limited arable land. In that Afghanistan was divided into its own country is more than 50% of the problem. It' s a country haunted by British Colonialism via the Durand Line as is most of the Middle East via similar British Ignorance, as these are regions with artificial colonialist borders. Hell, the Pashtuns were split into Pakistan (India at the time) and Afghanistan by an artificial border drawn by British Colonialists. Look up "Pashtunistan for the historical regions of the Pashtun ethnic group and you can see how fucked the modern borders are.
Soviet Union type structure with other surrounding nations such as Iran and Pakistan
It would be hard to overstate how not in the cards this is.
maybe the taliban won't let western mining companies rape the shit out of the country?
Some Afghani opportunists, ghouls, and nepotees* will benefit from resource extraction instead of American opportunists, ghouls, and nepotees. This is marginally better for random Afghanis, to the extent that trickle down economics is better than having your shit stolen.
The violence of a theocratic state against its own citizens is probably better on average than being in an active war zone. This isn't much consolation for the people it views as undesirable.
It does at least signal some very neat things about the US empire's ability to continue doing what it does. Remember that the Trump administration failed to get fresh imperialist wars off the ground several times over (Vuvuzela). The Biden admin hasn't even tried yet, and just lost an imperial holding.
*How is there not already a word for beneficiary of nepotism?
Afghanistan will be better off under the Taliban than they have been under the US occupation. They’re theocratic misogynist fucks, women’s rights will suffer, but people won’t have to worry about roadside bombs or drone attacks now that the war is ending.
I wouldn’t call that “good” but it’s certainly a silver lining.
The Taliban will also almost certainly get in tight with China as other people in this thread have suggested, leading to the sort of economic development that 20 years of US occupation failed to bring about.
Cap. There is no way we were enforcing women's rights especially when the taliban has such buy in that they can just walk in and assume control.
The offical liberally recognized state of womens's rights will suffer. However going from war zone to patriarchy is going to be an improvement to their conditions despite it being bleak choices.
Not so sure about whether the roadside bombs will end, but they will certainly decrease.
Not if you're an undesirable in the country. If you're not an undesirable, it might be better
Right now the Taliban are winning faster than they expected. At the moment we just have to see if they can govern Afghanistan successfully or it turns into warring factions.
Considering that peace is their number 1 selling point, there would have to be some abysmally shortsighted warlord to spur faction conflict
