I think that's a good analysis.

I would add that there's also often contradictions in one's personal life due to taking that L in the culture war, namely you actually get to know gay people, people of other ethnicities, etc, and now have to rationalize that with the far-right Christian stories you've been told about how all gay people are [redacted]. The hypocrisy is far more difficult to ignore when your best friend, who you know and love, comes out to you and the church vilification just isn't true.

Young people are also more mobile due to attending university, and therefore more likely to interact with any number is vilified groups of normal people and be forced into resolving the contradiction between those people being normal and your church telling you they're horrible. Obviously the contradiction isn't always resolved in favor of reality and acceptance, but a personal jolt like that is often the best shot at jostling someone out of their ideology.