PA, NC, AK, OH are guaranteed flips for the Dems. I'd argue IA and WI are winnable too, WI is a guaranteed flip if Ron Johnson isn't running. If any of those fail, Missouri and Florida are also likely, maybe even a weird one like Louisiana.
For the House, a lot of states have switched to non-partisan redistricting which will give Dems a boost overall. Plus the fact that I think people are way too harsh on Biden/the Dems - your average Boomer Hog does what the TV says, and the TV says Democrats are the best thing since sliced bread while the GOP are evil traitors who want to destroy democracy and America. They're gonna clamp down on Facebook, which means people over 55 will become staunch liberals overall. Trump might have given the GOP a future in 20 years with PePes, but that shit is extremely toxic in the short term for demented olds, so Democrats will see big gains.
This is a complete dreamworld prediction. I'm not some doom porner, but this is like, a top 0.1% of situations scenario.
OH is more likely to go for the GOP by double digits than it is for Democrats. The GOP has swept every race there for 5 years except for one Senate race in 2018. PA is probably 60/40 GOP at this point. The GOP won the congressional vote there in 2020. Alaska is a safe Republican seat with Murkowski there. North Carolina isn't impossible but it's a tossup at best.
Iowa is running Chuck Grassley, who is imensely popular there and won by 35 points in 2016, outperforming Trump by nearly 30. He's basically untouchable. Missouri is not flipping. Louisiana is not fucking flipping. These races are more likely to go for the GOP by 20 points than they are for Democrats to win. The GOP is more likely to flip Colorado than the Democrats are to flip Ohio or Missouri.
Redistricting will help the GOP more than the Democrats, probably net the GOP an extra one or two seats since the states that are gaining the most seats are Florida and Texas which have complete GOP control of redistricting. Redistricting won't be the bloodbath some of the doomsayers have predicted, but will still help the GOP a bit.
The TV is not saying Biden is the best thing since sliced bread. They annihilated him over Afghanistan and are starting to question his competence with the current failure over infrastructure and the Delta surge. There is no evidence of any clamping down on Facebook. Biden's approval rating is 5 points underwater because the TV is blasting him.
Furthermore, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Those are far from sure things. The most likely scenario is the GOP ends up with like, 52 seats by holding the midwest and flipping a couple Sun Belt states. A good night for Democrats would be like, winning 52 seats by flipping the Midwest+NC and holding the Sun Belt. But the idea that the GOP isn't favored - even slightly - in the Senate is lunacy.
OH and PA have ZERO energy candidates on the GOP side. Democrats will easily win those races on high turnout due to high Democratic enthusiasm. Same with NC.
Missouri is not impossible. Roy Blunt won by less than 3% in 2016 when Trump won by 18.
Redistricting will HELP the Democrats overall. The extra seats in TX and FL and balanced out by other states that are using non-partisan redistricting committees for the first time. Dems will easily gain 5+ House seats between that and high turnout.
The media will help the Democrats out when it's election time. No worries there, the conservatives will laugh themselves out of the room as usual.
Nevada and Arizona are safe Dem wins, Nevada probably by double digits. Georgia favors Dems 60/40 odds, they probably win it by like 4.
second of all, they had a Dem Senator until 2019 😂
You're forgetting how good Obama was for Dem senate during 2008 and 2012. He's the main reason many states that are pretty comfortably red by that point had senators hold out for a bit longer.
The attitude towards Trump during the 2016 primary was barely a fraction of what it was during Trump's presidency. Most liberals thought he was a joke and they "lost the plot". The narrative control is much tighter than it was back then, largely because they blame themselves for him winning.
Remember Trump only won like 30-35% of the GOP primary vote anyway, and he lost the 2016 general (plus Seniors abandoning him is a big reason why 2020 went poorly for Trump). I'd imagine the debate spectacle helped with that (no debates in Midterms).
PA, NC, AK, OH are guaranteed flips for the Dems. I'd argue IA and WI are winnable too, WI is a guaranteed flip if Ron Johnson isn't running. If any of those fail, Missouri and Florida are also likely, maybe even a weird one like Louisiana.
For the House, a lot of states have switched to non-partisan redistricting which will give Dems a boost overall. Plus the fact that I think people are way too harsh on Biden/the Dems - your average Boomer Hog does what the TV says, and the TV says Democrats are the best thing since sliced bread while the GOP are evil traitors who want to destroy democracy and America. They're gonna clamp down on Facebook, which means people over 55 will become staunch liberals overall. Trump might have given the GOP a future in 20 years with PePes, but that shit is extremely toxic in the short term for demented olds, so Democrats will see big gains.
This is a complete dreamworld prediction. I'm not some doom porner, but this is like, a top 0.1% of situations scenario.
OH is more likely to go for the GOP by double digits than it is for Democrats. The GOP has swept every race there for 5 years except for one Senate race in 2018. PA is probably 60/40 GOP at this point. The GOP won the congressional vote there in 2020. Alaska is a safe Republican seat with Murkowski there. North Carolina isn't impossible but it's a tossup at best.
Iowa is running Chuck Grassley, who is imensely popular there and won by 35 points in 2016, outperforming Trump by nearly 30. He's basically untouchable. Missouri is not flipping. Louisiana is not fucking flipping. These races are more likely to go for the GOP by 20 points than they are for Democrats to win. The GOP is more likely to flip Colorado than the Democrats are to flip Ohio or Missouri.
Redistricting will help the GOP more than the Democrats, probably net the GOP an extra one or two seats since the states that are gaining the most seats are Florida and Texas which have complete GOP control of redistricting. Redistricting won't be the bloodbath some of the doomsayers have predicted, but will still help the GOP a bit.
The TV is not saying Biden is the best thing since sliced bread. They annihilated him over Afghanistan and are starting to question his competence with the current failure over infrastructure and the Delta surge. There is no evidence of any clamping down on Facebook. Biden's approval rating is 5 points underwater because the TV is blasting him.
Furthermore, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Those are far from sure things. The most likely scenario is the GOP ends up with like, 52 seats by holding the midwest and flipping a couple Sun Belt states. A good night for Democrats would be like, winning 52 seats by flipping the Midwest+NC and holding the Sun Belt. But the idea that the GOP isn't favored - even slightly - in the Senate is lunacy.
OH and PA have ZERO energy candidates on the GOP side. Democrats will easily win those races on high turnout due to high Democratic enthusiasm. Same with NC.
Missouri is not impossible. Roy Blunt won by less than 3% in 2016 when Trump won by 18.
Redistricting will HELP the Democrats overall. The extra seats in TX and FL and balanced out by other states that are using non-partisan redistricting committees for the first time. Dems will easily gain 5+ House seats between that and high turnout.
The media will help the Democrats out when it's election time. No worries there, the conservatives will laugh themselves out of the room as usual.
Nevada and Arizona are safe Dem wins, Nevada probably by double digits. Georgia favors Dems 60/40 odds, they probably win it by like 4.
What kind of dreamland do you live in to think Missouri will ever be Dem majority?
First of all, that's not my idea of a "dream", and second of all, they had a Dem Senator until 2019 😂
You're forgetting how good Obama was for Dem senate during 2008 and 2012. He's the main reason many states that are pretty comfortably red by that point had senators hold out for a bit longer.
One senator. That doesn't mean the rest of the state isn't Republican majority. The STL-KC population is just 14% of the total state population.
I never said a Dem majority, I said the Dems might win a Senate election in the midterms.
Why are NC, AK, OH guaranteed flips?
GOP has no energy in OH or NC (incumbents are retiring in both), plus we've got the increased Dem enthusiasm plus mail in ballot factor.
AK is a wild west race at this point. Murkowski hasn't officially announced anything, and there's multiple people running against her.
If boomers listened to their tvs then Trump wouldn't have won the primary in 2016, nor the general election.
The attitude towards Trump during the 2016 primary was barely a fraction of what it was during Trump's presidency. Most liberals thought he was a joke and they "lost the plot". The narrative control is much tighter than it was back then, largely because they blame themselves for him winning.
Remember Trump only won like 30-35% of the GOP primary vote anyway, and he lost the 2016 general (plus Seniors abandoning him is a big reason why 2020 went poorly for Trump). I'd imagine the debate spectacle helped with that (no debates in Midterms).