Obviously it's impossible to predict it accurately, but we can make some educated guesses about what it will involve. No need to be rigorous, just throw some silly ideas out there.
Hordes of chuds will outnumber comrades and then shit all over the streets, enough to create entire mountains just covering the whole place, giving them a massive terrain and supplies advantage (the chuds subsist off of eating poop) in the coming revolution.
The US federal government becomes increasingly fascist in tone and official policy, but does less and less. Mutual aid networks and unions become increasingly communist, while doing more and more, but somehow become even more informal. There are constant armed clashes around protests, but less major armed conflict than you might think, because one group wants to hold a bunch of institutions and the other wants to hold all the factories and supply lines, so they never actually see each other except for adventurists. The country ends up du jure fascist and de facto anarcho-communist, and that ends up being the status quo for decades despite all evidence otherwise, like Taiwan claiming all of China as its territory.
i dunno why but this seems weirdly plausible. probalbly best case scenario since it's a slowly disintegrating fasco-libertarian state with a slowly rising anarcho-communist society beneath it
so it just just becomes boomers writ large? Angrier, more violent and authoritarian, but ultimately less effective and losing more power by the minute until death makes them just an inheritance to collect?
I don't really think it's boomers, or will die out with the boomer generation.
But it seems increasingly clear to me that these people do not have any understanding of how to take, hold, or wield power. So futures where they get more power don't seem all that likely. They do seem to know how to win elections, appointments, and positions of authority, but that's not actually the same thing as wielding power.
So in dialectical terms, there's a contradiction - fascists can't wield power, but can take formal positions of power - and the reconciliation I'm predicting is that the formal positions of power lose all their power.
Sorry I was unclear, my meaning was that the state will by and large follow the same trajectory that boomers are now on. In the same way that a boomer will be promoted faster but cannot use email correctly, fascists will attain positions without the associated power.
The coming revolution won't happen under the watchful eye of the @volcelpolice
Our officers are everywhere, ensuring nobody even thinks about breaking their pledge :volcel-judge:
America has a couple points of struggle where the underclass regularly rebels:
-Indigenous land struggles
-Student labor and tuition struggles
-anti-police struggles
Indigenous land struggles have the most potential of all of these struggles because they inherently transform social relationships, and are tied to something concrete: the land. If they win, they win their farms, their gathering grounds, their cultural institutions, and everything that connects those.
The other two hold less potential. A taken over university is still really just a collection of buildings. To be anything useful, it needs food, electricity, etc. It isn't grounded in the land the same way. This was the failure of the French uprising of '68. Similarly, anti-police struggles can delegitimize and demoralize the cops and destroy their infrastructure
Because America is de-industrializing and the industrial working class is paid off with the spoils of imperialism and ecocide, struggle over the MoP is unlikely, and what we're more likely to see is a service workers rebellion. This will either be reformist, or it will be a struggle against servitude itself, and will seek not for the proletariat to control their environment but to destroy it.
So the task is to:
Sabotage existing systems of oppression, build our own institutions, build a labor movement set on striking forever, support indigenous land struggles, and coordinate these projects to be able to support each other. If this succeeded, it would prevent the US from effectively managing an empire and the rest of the world could assert their autonomy, further weakening the US settler state at home.
The anti police struggle is more popular, but the indigenous movement has more potential to transform social relationships. Both are necessary, hence the necessity of organizing to connect struggles
If it's in the imperial core, it'll arise because either
(1) libs forget what it means to be a lib, get lost in learning ideology for the first time, and get turned towards socialism out of reaction to fascists and "centrism" because the contradictions become too great to treat centrism as a path forward. You'd see a sudden jump in socialist identity and could see the election of someone like Allende, but in a country like the UK or US, where the liberal strategy of isolating and destroying any country voting in a socialist would necessarily be in new territory. Shit would be difficult to predict until we're basically there.
(2) We build socialism to a strong enough level (10-20% of the population), get organized (join a party), and arm ourselves. When shit goes down, we become victorious with the same rough strategies as everyone else: recruitment, organization, and eventual military dominance. If we do not organize and arm, the most likely outcome is getting systematically exterminated by American nationalists in a week.
America becomes like The Walking Dead but without zombies and instead of one single Negan, there are thousands of copies of him all over the country
Peasants overthrowing the warlord who controls an arsenic-laced well: the cleanest water source in all of the wasteland.
Nancy Pelosi becomes radicalized, brings the government to a standstill until we can :vote: out Biden and :vote: in a random leftist podcaster as President.
I think it will take a large change in material conditions to affect anything. Market collapse and supply issues due to climate change to make the current problems look small in comparison. Essentially the treats need to stop flowing completely.
I think it will look like "The Troubles" on a national scale with different groups fighting with an increasingly fascist government and maybe eachother. Maybe some Communist groups coalesce in this but Americans are so propagandized I'm not holding out much hope.
Maybe some Communist groups coalesce
Remember that anarchists are the best organized group left of center, and that in some places, Anarchism is synonymous with militant social struggle. There would absolutely be revolutionary coalitions in the scenario you describe.
You're right, anarchists will certainly be in a position to grow since establishing networks of mutual aid and militant resistance to increasing fascist tendencies would be supremely important, and they're in a position to do both of those. That actually does give me a bit more hope.
Marx was wrong that the industrial working class would be the backbone of the revolution. Mao was wrong that it would be the colonized peoples. It’s mimes. Mimes will lead the vanguard
If revolution happens at all in the US, it will have had to deal with racism first since this is probably the most important tool the capitalists have had in keeping the working class divided. Solidarity is an absolute must for any viable proletarian movement here.
PMC Karen libs take the helm on massive mutual aid networks as the federal government breaks down/loses all public services and become a total violence machine for fascists. This greatly introduces much needed supplies from wealthier areas to the rest of the nation, but limits the amount of POC who can or feel comfortable to receive such aid. This would lead to alternative mutual aid groups springing up with a similar shape but catering more to these communities, which would be in alliance but quietly despise each other. Large queer sub-networks would emerge, with varying levels of alliance or hatred from their over-network depending on region, but usually well-connected between networks. In the chudosphere, group after group after group would just keep springing up and then splintering, then reforming under a better warlord. Some wealthier ones (think middle management/local business tyrant who supports voting rights) would eventually flip and become defensive forces for the karen aid networks, usually because that's their sister or wife helming those networks and it would be too awkward to try to kill them. This would allow armed escorts so that supplies could move through the country, and some limited country land could be held, but the countryside would ultimately fall mostly under chud or law-enforcement control. It will continue this way for at least a decade until some spirited orator and organizer rises up and starts something in one of the big cities. I'm thinking takes over some foreign ships in New York and uses them to secure shipping lanes or something like that. However that goes, the three or four factions now present will consolidate into 2: a more radicalized left and a more organized right. How this goes depends mostly on who can keep their troops together long enough to hold major cities AND farmland long enough to outproduce their foes.
I don't think we'll see a revolution in the Soviet or PRC sense. I think it's more likely we'll see the country balkanize around urban/rural lines.
Many cities, especially northern and northeastern cities that still have some semblance of an industrial base, will effectively become autonomous, while large swaths of rural areas come under the rule of regional warlord groups or maybe police forces or the national guard. It's in cities like New York, LA and Chicago that already have strong left-wing and union presence that we'll see the greatest potential for a socialist takeover of government and a demorcatization of the MoP.
The cities' industrial capacity might be increased evem further as marginalized people migrate to them to escape the now openly-fascist rural areas. It will give them the leverage to trade finished goods with the rural areas (and international powers) in exchange for food and raw resources.
