Well, my guess is that they send in "volunteers" to keep the civil war going until nato loses interest (maybe even ramp this up to increase tension, since putin will probably want to close the ukraine joining nato issue before stepping down, and it is assumed that he will not seek another term).

Well, unless there is a stupid provocation, like cancelling nordstream 2 or the swedes join nato or some shit like this.

Maybe someone finds this more economic analysis from adam tooze interesting.