- cross-posted to:
- news
- cross-posted to:
- news
Who else is staying up? I legit can't fall asleep, waiting for the verdict.
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I am watching https://www.icj-cij.org/multimedia-live-original
17 mins past the hour so far they are going with SA
36 mins "the catastrophic humanitarian situation" is only getting worse + saying israel isn't doing enough to stop the genocide
12:42 Israel has to refrain from genocide
Ruling is 15-2 or 16-2 (they make
35 similar orders I don't know the nuance between them all)12:40 GMT Israel has 1 month to write a report about why they are or aren't doing genocide.
I wonder what order to avoid bodily harm means. Is it hidden ceasefire request, or bullshit around where they can say it was military target, sprinkle some ak47 around
I don't know what else it could mean. What was the wording of SA's application?
I wonder if they are going to talk about what they didn't grant and why. That would clarify it.
They've gone to french, so probably has to wait for lawyer brains to chime in in next hour
This is the language in SA's application:
- If any military operation, no matter how carefully it is carried out, is carried out pursuant to an intention to destroy a “people”, in whole or in part, it violates the Genocide Convention and it must stop. That is why all military operations capable of violating the Genocide Convention must cease.
On Aj Jazeera they are saying this is not an order for a ceasefire.
yes well it explains the recent ceasefire offer of 2 months, and Hamas saying 'sure if the ICJ says ceasefire and you'll abide by one'
I'll stay up for it.
What do people think is going to happen?
My bet is it'll pass. US, Germany, and possibly (less likely) UK & Australia (less likely than UK still) will vote no, the rest yes.
I think the wording of some of the requests by SA will be altered slightly, and some might not be mandated, but most will.
Although it's supposed to be without predujuce to the merits of the case, these preliminary judgements de facto are an indication of the merits, lawyers always fight a preliminary ruling even though its supposed to make no difference to the final one because actually it obviously does.
I hope I'm right, but I'm prepared to be mocked as a fool if I'm wrong.
In terms of what happens next, Israel will ignore it in practice but also do a propaganda blitz pretending to abide by it, the US will continue to pretend its 'influencing' or 'pressuring' Israel to play nice. But it'll open up other legal and diplomatic attacks, and also raise SA's standing and create a good precedent for others, so its good.
edit; obviously ignoring the two ad hoc judges, who will vote yes and no respectively.
Have a horrible feeling they'll throw out the whole case on a technicality. Anxiety through the roof, I can't watch.
So far they have declined to thrown it out on the basis of jurisdiction which I understand was the strongest argument.
I feel like were through the singularity now, and its hard for me to imagine what's next.
first step complete, even if measures are some dogshit 
but still israel will eat so much shit now
