I guess, I don't understand why the market crash always seems like this gif for the last 2 years.
The economy is an unending car crash, but don't forget that it's also deliberately and perpetually painted as "the thing that will hit any second now!", to justify the endless workers-rights cuts, bailouts, corruption, and 'lesser-evil'-ism. People can better tolerate these things if they're painted as if they're just narrowly avoiding imminent disaster, rather than just kicking the can of 'sort shit out' further and further down the road forever more.
Because they don't want to scare investors.
Really we've been through several continuous crashes in the last 14 years. Never fully recovering from any.
Whats a good way to understand or learn how this data can be monitored and Interpreted, luckily today I'm asking an owl for advice.
Someone who is a bit better at explaining might be able to help you. :bird-screm1: sorry
What data are you talking about? The signs a crash is coming? There an art to it, but generally interest rates going up is bad for stocks because it increases the "discount rate" on a company's earnings. If I can get a safe government bond at say 3%, then the theoretical growth/profits of your company are worth less to me than if the government only pays 1%. It also makes it harder for companies to borrow money (interest rate = "the price of money") which makes it harder for them to expand and grow earnings.
One thing you have to remember is that investing news is a huge business, and news business always needs a story. Part of the reason why the market is "always gonna crash" is because somebody's gotta say something, and doom-pilling attracts viewers and clicks.
The other thing is just the business cycle. Market cycles happen a lot faster than people think, like 2-4 years oftentimes, it's just that a "market cycle" doesn't mean the whole world will end or even a huge recession (recessions are not inherently super bad times like 2008 either, that was considered historically quite bad).
Related to the above, everyone wants the credit for calling the "big one". The thing is, if everyone "knows" the market is gonna crash 90% like the Great Depression, a crash almost cannot happen because people's behavior is different. Big cascades down usually come from liquidations and margin calls, and people don't fuck with margin when they all "know" a crash "is coming".
Bailouts until they literally can't anymore, the market is not too different from a coke addict. Coincidentally it's run by some
The government keeps pouring money they magic up from nowhere into key sectors of load-bearing industries and finance such as banking, insurance, etc to keep them afloat. It's why there's never any serious crash. Technically it's classified as an instant loan that is also technically instantly repaid so the money that gets magic'd up by the central bank doesn't ever enter circulation and drive up inflation. One example of this happening was the daily injections of trillions of dollars by the Fed into Wall Street in the opening stages of the pandemic back in spring 2020
It's down 15-20% already this year, and it's only got more room to slide. The only upside for wall Street right now is spiralling food and commodity prices it can use to extort poor countries. But crucially when the stock market crashes this time it won't recover, unlike 2008
All the deaths from covid kill a little bit of the debit with them. The remaining assets get put into the market. This is not the only reason the government wants you to die of covid. But it is one of thr many ways you dying of covid makes their jobs easier.
Crash or no crash, end of the day capitalists still own the means of production, so the gov can just keep creating a shit ton of fictitious capital to keep the baby investors from dumping gov debt that they like accruing interest on
They can theoretically keep this ouroboros alive until it smashes into the climate/resource wall, and then it's the cool zone
This gif is me since the end of 2019. Fuck, no wonder my anxiety is so bad lately.
Markets are about buyers and sellers. If the price drops low enough, someone will buy shares of a company unless it's bankrupt or something.
At the end of the day, a large portion of the market does in fact represent real things and a "share" is owning a piece of it. If you could buy a piece of a company like Google - which is highly unlikely to just poof and go away tomorrow - for say $5, of course someone's gonna buy it. It never just goes to zero unless we're in charge.
The S&P is a lot volatile than usual in the past few weeks. This is exactly what crashes look like. They go on like this for years and drag prices down along the way. Large drops are near the end, if at all. The Great Depression started a crash that was like this for 3 years from 1929 to 1932 with many false recoveries along the way. But there are also examples of periods of volatility exactly like this before the bubble bursts, which means it might go up, very aggressively, from here. Volatility but upward instead of downward. My opinion is that whatever happens next will be spectacular.
And what the fuck are they going to do, lower interest rates? Inflation adjusted interest rates have never been this negative. Backs are completely against the wall. It's totally fucked folks.
Richard Wolfe has been promising a crash for over three years now and I’m getting impatient
