We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.

We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).

We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.

We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.

So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.

Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?

  • Mother [any]
    ·
    3 years ago

    Maybe. I think that would break the country apart.

    Not that it isn’t already breaking apart but that would be a speed run

    • join_the_iww [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Actually, now that I think about it more, they wouldn't have to send in federal agents. They could just deny Medicare reimbursement to any hospital in a blue state that continues to provide abortion in spite of the ban.

      • axont [she/her, comrade/them]
        ·
        3 years ago

        That would kill millions of elderly people if they tried it, which would also crack the country apart. It would also start an enormous fight between Republicans and pharmaceutical companies who make a ton of money off Medicare. Nationally, Medicare is around a $40 billion per year business and that's a whole lot of money to threaten. That's assuming republicans would actually have enough guts to do it and states that continued providing abortion wouldn't simply fold instantly.

        I could see states like Washington, California, and New York going up in months long riots if they had abortion restrictions like in the south, much less a federal ban.

      • DinosaurThussy [they/them]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Medicare is a block grant to the states, so they would have to cut funding to the whole state, which as mentioned elsewhere, would kill millions