We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.

We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).

We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.

We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.

So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.

Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?

  • AutoVomBizMarkee [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    I think you are right, and I think there is realistically nothing to stop it in the short term. I also question the idea being thrown out about civil war or balkanization. If California doesn't enforce the ban, for example, what actual power does California have to stop federal agents from making them do it? Do people think the all volunteer national guard of california is going to fight the US military over abortion rights? The organized people with guns (military, police, national guard) are 90% in on supporting the far right. They will have no problem playing out their power fantasies to erase the non-desirables and take the final steps to ensure a full theocratic fascist USA.

    • SerLava [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      States can stop state resources from going to enforce bans. But on the other hand it's a lot easier for a few feds to arrest a few doctors than a bunch of weed dealers.

      States might be able to legalize like, in-home care and enable some kind of stealth abortion services, maybe.

      I don't know about the inevitability thing though. I have heard that just with the news of Roe v Wade being probably overturned, which only has so much awareness, there's already a significant depression in intent to vote Republican. Sorry I don't have sources, im tired.

      I think when hell-states start to lock women up for abortions, for fucking ectopic pregnancies, etc. it will become a much more real issue. And there's plenty of footage of fascists saying yes we want to do this in every state.

    • Dangitbobby [none/use name]
      ·
      3 years ago

      I don't know if you've been following the news but Biden has been purging those people all over the place. Out, out, out!

        • Dangitbobby [none/use name]
          ·
          3 years ago

          Biden has been purging the far right elements from the US military. You didn't hear about it? White supremacists are being identified from their social media postings and discharged. Antivaxxers already got fired. It's some good news for once.

          • machiabelly [she/her]
            ·
            3 years ago

            Wow, :biden-leftist: actually doing something. This makes me pretty happy. I guess he's actually scared of a coup then, otherwise he wouldn't go to the trouble.