No update today, will be able to continue tomorrow.
Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday's discussion post.
According to the Ukrainian MoD, the Ukrainian Kherson offensive has failed, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed entirely out of Russia-controlled territory, back to the other side of the river. This offensive has, so far, gone even worse than my low expectations for Ukrainian forces.
At least 70% of Severodonetsk has now been captured by Russia.
Any word on negotiations? I can't imagine Russia is feeling like talking after the US said it's going to ship in long range rocket artilley.
The last I heard was Ukraine refusing negotiations until Russia withdraws completely, not only from the Donbass republics and the Ukraine but also from Crimea. The west is cheering on the Ukraine, ordering them to fight to the last Ukrainian.
The last thing I heard from the Russian side was that they wouldn't meet to negotiate anything but a Ukrainian surrender.
I don't think they're going very well. Maybe, if we're really lucky, the Ukraine will come to its senses and sue for peace once all of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhiza and Kherson are controlled by Russia, and defy western dictates in order to save it's people. But we live in hell so I wouldn't count on it.
If Russia is making steady progress and doesn't actually want to conquer the entire country then in theory they can set up a defense line wherever they want the border to be and then just pound the shit out of whatever Ukraine throws at them. It might turn in to a North Korea DMZ thing where the war is de facto over but de jure still going. They're high on Nationlist brain farts if they think they're getting Crimea back.
In such a scenario Russia would still need to make frequent strikes deep into Ukrainian territory to destroy weapons caches, air bases, missiles etc. For a de jure war, de facto peace scenario to work there would need to be an understanding with the Ukraine of each state staying on their own side of the DMZ.
And Ukraine has serious nationalism brain, and has totally dehumanized the enemy, and has dispersed political police in to the army to enforce it's will, etc. etc.
@comi
Kherson was a complete dud