Should be able to see them here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
We'll see how hard they're going to push the "wages have to come down right now" thing.
1% in May vs 0.3% in April lol. lmao.
Should be able to see them here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
We'll see how hard they're going to push the "wages have to come down right now" thing.
1% in May vs 0.3% in April lol. lmao.
Real question: I have an old 401k from my last job that I have yet to roll over but the plan still exists. Should I just cash that out to put a down payment on a house at this point? After the taxes and everything it would just about cover it. It has already lost like 10 percent so far this year, it's ridiculous.
If you’re in the US, and it’s your first home, then I think you can waive the withdrawal fee.
Overall, it depends a lot on your situation, but I’m inclined to say “yes, do it”
Things to consider: what’s the real estate market like in your area? Upwardly or downwardly mobile? Do you intend to stay in that area for > 5 years? How close are you to retirement? How do you feel about the extra liabilities that come with home ownership?
My spouse and I are many decades away from retirement. My biggest factor for this decision is getting a nice enough place to raise a family, feel safe and comfortable, and if all else fails have some safety net, as foreclosure can take longer than eviction. I have a lot of family nearby that are handy and are knowledgeable home owners so I am confident I will have the time and ability to take care of, maintain, and improve the property.
Sounds like a good plan then. I expect stocks to keep trading sideways (at best) while real estate to keep climbing. Building materials will kee new home prices high and big capital is buying up any supply they can. I’m not qualified to give financial advice, but I can speculate.
Real estate in the US is so overpriced right now and interest rates have become high enough that moving retirement savings in a mutual fund to real estate probably only makes sense if you could pay cash for the full purchase price. If you're financing a large amount of the purchase price you have to consider the premium you're paying in terms of interest for an asset you assume will appreciate. I'd probably just let it sit and not look at it. Of course that depends on what you're paying for rent rn and a bunch of other factors that are unique to your situation.
Ultimately, it isn't a terribly large sum of money, and it won't do me any good losing most of it's value in the impending market crash. Having it as a way of putting a down payment on a house might make sense to me so that I can protect my own savings for maintenance and other costs instead of wiping that out. Real estate may be over priced, but what exactly has to happen for the price to go down? Institutional level financial collapse like in 2008?
There are a few people saying the bubble is about to burst on real estate, but you're right, it will probably lead to an even bigger downturn in stocks. The property you buy isn't going to lose value, more than likely, but the interest you're paying on your mortgage is essentially a maintenance coat on your investment. Say you've got 10k right now in that mutual fund. You use that 10k to put a down payment on a 100k house. In ten years you sell that house for 110k. You have your original 10k, plus your 10k in profit, for a grand total of 20k. Now subtract the interest that you've paid on the 90k mortgage, plus all the other costs of ownership in excess of what you were paying for rent and you'll probably see that your original 10k is now much less than if you'd just left it in the fund.
We're just in a shitty situation. Holding cash means losing money. Hold real assets like real estate could mean losing money if there's a housing crash. A market crash will wipe out your pension/retirement. Basically everyone is fucked and there's no real place to put your money that's safe right now. All the inflation hedges are down or trading sideways.
I can't say you should do a down payment on a home, but interest rates are going up no matter what. Even if next month the CPI is only 0.8%, that's still higher than everyone was wanting/expecting a couple of weeks ago. A couple of weeks ago the Fed was floating they would cut rates by end of 2023. I doubt that will happen now. We're already halfway through 2022. Inflation being more than negative for the next six months means more stagnation.
If you are going to do a home, do the math and make sure it's a great deal. Find something as cheap as you can tolerate and shop around for the best mortgage. Haggle on everything. Housing is overpriced so don't feel bad about talking someone down on their price. Find a reason why you can't pay their opening offer. Then find another reason why you can't pay their next best offer. In other words, find flaws in the property and make it sound like an imposition to fix it. Be as nice about it as you want, but be blunt and treat it like a negotiation.
Just make sure you have several months worth of payments on hand. Do not miss a payment to the bank. During 2008 they were taking people's homes away over any small transgression.
I-bonds are tied to inflation so they are at least a way to make sure your savings doesn’t get worth less because of inflation. At least a little bit.
We are living in a complete bubble economy just like people predicted after the way they bailed out the banks in 2008.
Capitalism is done for: the question is does it drag the entire world to hell with it on its way out? Probably yes.
Thank you for the advice, my friend. It certainly is hard to make sense of what to do at this point in time economically. I am always planning for the worst, so hopefully I can find a good deal and keep my cost of living as low as possible.