Should be able to see them here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
We'll see how hard they're going to push the "wages have to come down right now" thing.
1% in May vs 0.3% in April lol. lmao.
me reading this: new communist party of india split just dropped :CommiePOGGERS:
Consumer Price Index (Maoist) can and will destroy Consumer Price Index (Marxist) in the battle for CPI(M). The loser will not be destroyed or disbanded, they just have to change their name
Mmm, used vehicles inflating in price more that new vehicles, good stuff. Soon enough the difference in price between a five-year-old car and a new one will be a Fuddrucker's gift card.
I’m looking at a used car currently and it’s virtually identical in price to the newer model
Honesty the fact that we as the left are writing essays about what the Morbin time meme says about the western chauvinist gaze rather than doing the economic analysis of just how fucked this current moment is feels like a big swing and a miss. This shits getting crazy and it feels like there’s few words being put to it cleanly
Bros are asking 30k for their diesel truck with a work truck level trim. And the truck always had 200k + miles on it
Despite buying my car 4 years ago and doubling the mileage on it, according to KBB it’s only lost about 10% of value
Thanks Joe
I think there's probably been enough splits in the Communist Party of India, but I guess one more can't hurt.
copying my comment from the other thread:
interest rate hikes won't bring inflation under control - inflation is being driven by supply shortages that are driving up the costs for businesses to produce goods. that is, the rate of profit is collapsing so prices must go up in an attempt to compensate. it's going to keep going up until they find a way to valorize all the available capital - but with the death of so many around the world to covid and the aging out of the largest demographic in history, they're going to find that they have only one real way to do so: destroy some portion of fixed capital, whether via wars or some other means.
some good reading from Michael Roberts, a Marxian economist on this subject:
- https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2022/04/18/the-inflation-debate/
- https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/08/21/a-marxist-theory-of-inflation/
Price destruction is a thing. You can only hike pieces so much till people just find alternatives like not buying it
It's a term that is used mostly for gas. There's a point where the only thing people are going to do is commute or essentials. With food they will start buying pff brand.
that's already happened - I posted a thread a few days ago about families skipping meals. 65+% are already trying to buy cheaper food. people are looking at their commutes and wondering if they make enough to balance out the price of gas it takes to get to work. consumer debt is at all time highs as people try to pay for the increases in essentials, savings account balances are at all-time lows, and non-essential spending seems to have plummeted YTD. and prices are still going up because the actual issue is a supply-side shortage and it's driven by the plummeting rate of profit - businesses need goods that they can hand to laborers to produce commodities for sale. as the prices of those inputs goes up, sustaining profits means raising prices. when demand drops, prices can't follow them because the fixed costs of production have risen too far - businesses must find other places to cut costs, including layoffs. this is stagflation - total value produced drops even as prices continue to rise.
It printed above expectations. You're all gonna starve unless you start serving tendies with a SMILE and stop complaining about a very adequate $3 tip on a $40 check.
Real question: I have an old 401k from my last job that I have yet to roll over but the plan still exists. Should I just cash that out to put a down payment on a house at this point? After the taxes and everything it would just about cover it. It has already lost like 10 percent so far this year, it's ridiculous.
Real estate in the US is so overpriced right now and interest rates have become high enough that moving retirement savings in a mutual fund to real estate probably only makes sense if you could pay cash for the full purchase price. If you're financing a large amount of the purchase price you have to consider the premium you're paying in terms of interest for an asset you assume will appreciate. I'd probably just let it sit and not look at it. Of course that depends on what you're paying for rent rn and a bunch of other factors that are unique to your situation.
Ultimately, it isn't a terribly large sum of money, and it won't do me any good losing most of it's value in the impending market crash. Having it as a way of putting a down payment on a house might make sense to me so that I can protect my own savings for maintenance and other costs instead of wiping that out. Real estate may be over priced, but what exactly has to happen for the price to go down? Institutional level financial collapse like in 2008?
There are a few people saying the bubble is about to burst on real estate, but you're right, it will probably lead to an even bigger downturn in stocks. The property you buy isn't going to lose value, more than likely, but the interest you're paying on your mortgage is essentially a maintenance coat on your investment. Say you've got 10k right now in that mutual fund. You use that 10k to put a down payment on a 100k house. In ten years you sell that house for 110k. You have your original 10k, plus your 10k in profit, for a grand total of 20k. Now subtract the interest that you've paid on the 90k mortgage, plus all the other costs of ownership in excess of what you were paying for rent and you'll probably see that your original 10k is now much less than if you'd just left it in the fund.
We're just in a shitty situation. Holding cash means losing money. Hold real assets like real estate could mean losing money if there's a housing crash. A market crash will wipe out your pension/retirement. Basically everyone is fucked and there's no real place to put your money that's safe right now. All the inflation hedges are down or trading sideways.
I can't say you should do a down payment on a home, but interest rates are going up no matter what. Even if next month the CPI is only 0.8%, that's still higher than everyone was wanting/expecting a couple of weeks ago. A couple of weeks ago the Fed was floating they would cut rates by end of 2023. I doubt that will happen now. We're already halfway through 2022. Inflation being more than negative for the next six months means more stagnation.
If you are going to do a home, do the math and make sure it's a great deal. Find something as cheap as you can tolerate and shop around for the best mortgage. Haggle on everything. Housing is overpriced so don't feel bad about talking someone down on their price. Find a reason why you can't pay their opening offer. Then find another reason why you can't pay their next best offer. In other words, find flaws in the property and make it sound like an imposition to fix it. Be as nice about it as you want, but be blunt and treat it like a negotiation.
Just make sure you have several months worth of payments on hand. Do not miss a payment to the bank. During 2008 they were taking people's homes away over any small transgression.
I-bonds are tied to inflation so they are at least a way to make sure your savings doesn’t get worth less because of inflation. At least a little bit.
We are living in a complete bubble economy just like people predicted after the way they bailed out the banks in 2008.
Capitalism is done for: the question is does it drag the entire world to hell with it on its way out? Probably yes.
Thank you for the advice, my friend. It certainly is hard to make sense of what to do at this point in time economically. I am always planning for the worst, so hopefully I can find a good deal and keep my cost of living as low as possible.
If you’re in the US, and it’s your first home, then I think you can waive the withdrawal fee.
Overall, it depends a lot on your situation, but I’m inclined to say “yes, do it”
Things to consider: what’s the real estate market like in your area? Upwardly or downwardly mobile? Do you intend to stay in that area for > 5 years? How close are you to retirement? How do you feel about the extra liabilities that come with home ownership?
My spouse and I are many decades away from retirement. My biggest factor for this decision is getting a nice enough place to raise a family, feel safe and comfortable, and if all else fails have some safety net, as foreclosure can take longer than eviction. I have a lot of family nearby that are handy and are knowledgeable home owners so I am confident I will have the time and ability to take care of, maintain, and improve the property.
Sounds like a good plan then. I expect stocks to keep trading sideways (at best) while real estate to keep climbing. Building materials will kee new home prices high and big capital is buying up any supply they can. I’m not qualified to give financial advice, but I can speculate.
