The misery index for the US economy, a good guide to past election results, points to a 30-seat defeat for Democrats in November's midterms https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/midterm-misery-for-biden-as-key-economy-gauge-flags-30-seat-loss?sref=babSEhDq via @bpolitics
It's not that crazy. The map is favorable to the Dems, there aren't any surefire pickups for the GOP and in the most vulnerable seats they've run awful candidates. I'd be pretty surprised if Fetterman lost to Oz at this point. Kelly is reasonably popular in Arizona and Masters is a dipshit. Take those two and you just have to win 2 of GA/NV/NH to hold the Senate. Good chance the Dems lose the House by a decent margin but hold onto the Senate by the skin of their teeth.
It's not that crazy. The map is favorable to the Dems, there aren't any surefire pickups for the GOP and in the most vulnerable seats they've run awful candidates. I'd be pretty surprised if Fetterman lost to Oz at this point. Kelly is reasonably popular in Arizona and Masters is a dipshit. Take those two and you just have to win 2 of GA/NV/NH to hold the Senate. Good chance the Dems lose the House by a decent margin but hold onto the Senate by the skin of their teeth.