August 1st's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.
Go here for live updates on the Taiwan situation.
August 3rd's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.
No updates on Thursdays.
August 5th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.
August 6th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.
No updates on Sundays.
Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
i don't think china's gonna nuke us but it would be pretty funny if they did :big-cool:
They shouldn't threaten to nuke us unless they go through with it. Nuclear brinkmanship is about trust.
I don’t think they’ll do anything tbh, it’s just dumb idea in general
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The problem is naval assault is incredibly costly and just straight bombing (allegedly your own) country over visit from some old lady seems very questionable. Economic shenanigans seems saner, or some very asymmetric answer in style of turkey/cuba crisis.
As I’ve said, china obvious interest is to cultivate peaceful relationship with neighbors, which full military invasion won’t help one bit, in places like vietnam especially
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Seconding this, economic sanctions or something on the US would be way more painful and cost-effective vs military response. Pretty bad plan to go to war with the country that makes your ammunition and so many other things.
The American ruling class doesn't care about it's population. So sanctions aren't going to deter it.
I forget where i read it but some Chinese think tank type people where making this argument. That the only thing the usa ruling elite understands is violence.
Yes, the elite only understand violence, but you can absolutely get there through economics. Economic driven violence you could call it, its a more scenic route but not really that scenic.
Sure, sanctions and such won't affect them immediately much neither afaik. Like bond dumping or chip shipment seizure or what have you, big bourgeois still laughs and gets their plunder/treats/whatever, profits off it too. Long term it will though, and you can't be ignorant and free of your material reality forever, like the giant chocolate bunny in the pot of boiling milk, fatter you are the more insulated from your environment, but you are not immortal, eventually you will melt. Economy gets bad enough the ruling elite won't be insulated, and as brainwashed as Americans are they do still feel things like thirst hunger and such and while they will attack each other first eventually they will turn on the bourgeois.
Aside from economic violence regular type wars are lost and won on logistics alone, we've seen how fragile supply chains in the US are. As a spoiler some of those supply chains do hinder military ones as well.
Everything minus military for the US is fair or shit tier (ex infrastructure, health of populace, economy, and so on), all they have going for them is military/military manufacturing and deal chains and the time to use that is super short, like maybe 5-10yrs tops before they're no longer the global hegemony. Can't fight a war on bad thoughts alone, or make money on war like they used to, US as hypnotized by its own propaganda knows this and is pushing world wide to get as many fires started to use its advantages while it has them in place, won't have them for much longer. Just has to push the target country to the limit to get the military conflicts started since that's playing to the very last card in its deck. These are the lashings out of a faltering warbeast.
Vietnam gives a shit about China invading Taiwan but gives no shit about the increasing US military presence in the South China Sea?
Longer history with China, but they playing both side, just like other ASEAN country. Indonesia also buy US equipment if I recalled, but most Asean are neutral and not going take side
Vietnam likes usa :shrug-outta-hecks:
Only the Gusano, the CPV playing both side, remembered they reject Harris
Vietnam does naval exercises with the US
vietnam is the one country that i can sort of understand being wary of China
They do, but they want to keep both sides guessing. Titoist thought but with less IMF loans.
I also don't see how exactly China - in spite of being fully right and resloute and yadda - could formulate their military response; In various Chinese media I see nothing specific, just general threats. But Nancy likely won't visit anyway.
They likely didn't go to the same military school as the Ukrainian army, you don't just announce offensives weeks in advance you know.
Xilensky: "We are putting together a 1 million Chinese army and we will take Taiwan sometime in the next month! Yeah you go hide in fear you little peon haha!".
Haha of course, but China is a big country with many voices; they also have independent analysts and political spectrum [I'd say much bigger than USA] yet I haven't seen specific, convincing suggestion.
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China isn't fully right at all. Explain how the Qing dynasty controlling (small) parts of Taiwan for periods of time, which other countries have as well, means that the CPC should own Taiwan? The KMT is trash leftover from the war in China, how do they represent Taiwan when they only make up 1/5th of the population of Taiwan INCLUDING their descendants and are referred to as foreigners (外省人) in Taiwan?
Everyone already agrees that Taiwan is Chinese. The conflict is about who the the legitimate government of China is, the PRC or the US puppet regime in Taiwan.
The Qing dynasty controlled the entire island. They literally had to since the last remnants of the Ming dynasty was holed up in Taiwan. The only reason Taiwan is such a question mark and not just another Chinese island like Hainan is due to Japanese imperialism.
And waishengren doesn't mean "foreigner." It means "person outside of this province" to contrast that with benshengren which means "person of this province." The actual word that means foreigner is "waiguoren." And yes, the fact that waishengren are called waishengren and not waiguoren (although hardcore separatists are trying their best to popularize that term in mainstream Taiwanese society) is already a tacit admittance that Taiwan is just another Chinese province (省), not a country (國).
And this isn't even getting into the Taiwanese aborigines, the original indigenous peoples of Taiwan, who by and large vote KMT.
For someone with that username you really don't seem to understand the US empire imperialism MO.
There is no future where Taiwan becomes a sovereign country . Any unilateral break from the status quo by the US is a step closer to Taiwan becoming a giant Okinawa base for the us military and a full on American protectorat miles off Chinas shore and that's the prime reality China understandably has to avoid . And that's beyond Taiwan existence only being able to happen and be safeguarded by foreign colonialism and intervention. It's existence to this dayis a secessionist, balkanizing by product only of Western imperialism and nothing else
Simply, it's either that or the USA fascist regime - with further expansion and escalations all over the region; and you know what it means.
Nah, they not going to shoot down the plane. Probably escort her? The US trying to goad China into a war because this is now or never for them, when China take the semiconductor market and developing 6th gen jets, it’s over for the US.
I'm hoping they let her land and then a flash mob of P.R.C. loyalists kidnap her and take her to the main land before anyone knows what happened.
I foresee some military drills and Chinese Ships doing a bit of running the straits but nothing more than Cold War-style trolling.
Ending organised human civilization in a nuclear holocaust as a bit is NOT okay.