A- 0.5%. Could be a little less, but probably on the rise and could reach as high as 1% within a decade. I have met 3 or 4 certain fascists in person (out of a total of thousands of acquaintances), none of whom had any in-person connections to other fascists. But I suspect their numbers are concentrated in reactionary hotbeds.
B- 16%. Here I'm going with a midpoint between the number that believe the 2020 general election was stolen and the number that say violence against this regime is justified right now, cross-checked against the percent of people with wealth above the nationwide mean (as a proxy for the class of lifetime net creditors).
C- 80%, plus or minus 2%.
D- 4%, and that's pushing it. 5-8% took part in the 2020 wave of BLM protests in any form in person, which is a very low bar for personal risk. Marxists and anarchists and democratic socialists add up to maybe just over 1%, the vast majority being demsocs. The remainder of this is left-liberals who'd be willing to put something on the line for their beliefs.
The reactionary minority isn't enough to win democratic elections; their game plan this whole time has been to minimize voter turnout, and introduce as many abstractions as possible into the republican institutions such that the one-sixth minority can have a majority in government. They have been making steady progress on this front, and are now in a position where presidents who won only by the distortion of the Electoral College have appointed a majority of the current Supreme Court, which will have a huge reactionary impact for a long time.
That all still falls short of seizing power as a regimented, palingenetic, ultranationalist government. That may happen, and it may be funded by Group 2, but it will mostly just be Group 1 doing it. And Group 1 is way more prepared to do act along these lines than Group 4 is.
Your analysis is more thorough than mine—using responses to polled questions is a better proxy than just plain votes.
I don’t think there’s much likelihood of an outright ‘seizing power’ by the fash minority. Rather, it’ll be a slow squeeze, like what’s already happening as you identify.
Next time the Republicans get in, it’ll have a few more nutters pushing a stolen election narrative. We’ll get a few more ‘safety checks’. Maybe one day there will be an election effectively decided by the Supreme Court (but that itself boggles belief a little—it’s hard to imagine the Supreme Court interfering with the electoral process to award the election).
Do you think they'd allow the Democrats to win the White House plus the House and Senate again, without attemping another 1/6, and do you think the Dems would just roll over and let them have it?
A- 0.5%. Could be a little less, but probably on the rise and could reach as high as 1% within a decade. I have met 3 or 4 certain fascists in person (out of a total of thousands of acquaintances), none of whom had any in-person connections to other fascists. But I suspect their numbers are concentrated in reactionary hotbeds.
B- 16%. Here I'm going with a midpoint between the number that believe the 2020 general election was stolen and the number that say violence against this regime is justified right now, cross-checked against the percent of people with wealth above the nationwide mean (as a proxy for the class of lifetime net creditors).
C- 80%, plus or minus 2%.
D- 4%, and that's pushing it. 5-8% took part in the 2020 wave of BLM protests in any form in person, which is a very low bar for personal risk. Marxists and anarchists and democratic socialists add up to maybe just over 1%, the vast majority being demsocs. The remainder of this is left-liberals who'd be willing to put something on the line for their beliefs.
For my response, cf. responses from @KiaKaha and @ghosts.
The reactionary minority isn't enough to win democratic elections; their game plan this whole time has been to minimize voter turnout, and introduce as many abstractions as possible into the republican institutions such that the one-sixth minority can have a majority in government. They have been making steady progress on this front, and are now in a position where presidents who won only by the distortion of the Electoral College have appointed a majority of the current Supreme Court, which will have a huge reactionary impact for a long time.
That all still falls short of seizing power as a regimented, palingenetic, ultranationalist government. That may happen, and it may be funded by Group 2, but it will mostly just be Group 1 doing it. And Group 1 is way more prepared to do act along these lines than Group 4 is.
Your analysis is more thorough than mine—using responses to polled questions is a better proxy than just plain votes.
I don’t think there’s much likelihood of an outright ‘seizing power’ by the fash minority. Rather, it’ll be a slow squeeze, like what’s already happening as you identify.
Next time the Republicans get in, it’ll have a few more nutters pushing a stolen election narrative. We’ll get a few more ‘safety checks’. Maybe one day there will be an election effectively decided by the Supreme Court (but that itself boggles belief a little—it’s hard to imagine the Supreme Court interfering with the electoral process to award the election).
That would be more likely to happen if their grip started to slip.
Even then, they can usually get away with just making loud noises and having policy bend their way.
The Dems would really rather not have that fight if they can avoid it.
Do you think they'd allow the Democrats to win the White House plus the House and Senate again, without attemping another 1/6, and do you think the Dems would just roll over and let them have it?