• Commander_Data [she/her]
    ·
    2 years ago

    It would own so much if the theocracy collapsed and the remnant socialists from the OG revolution took power. I'd love to come to find out that the US dumped millions of dollars into destabilizing the theocracy, only to have it replaced by a power structure that was more hostile to the west, and cut off the CIA's main route of infiltration.

    • hexaflexagonbear [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      I'm not sure there are many remnants left. Pretty sure the theocratic government started executing communists shortly after taking power.

      • Commander_Data [she/her]
        ·
        2 years ago

        True, I asked my partner's Iranian boss his thoughts a few weeks ago at a big company dinner they were having. His parents still live near Tehran, and I thought he would be a good resource. Turns out his aunt and uncle were both socialists and involved in the revolution. Her boss's uncle was captured and executed by the theocracy and his body dumped on his parents doorstep. His aunt was imprisoned for six years, tortured and sexually assaulted during that time, but eventually released. I was worried I had killed the whole vibe by asking about it, but her boss was surprisingly chill about it.

    • Spectre_of_Z_poster [they/them]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      If the Iranian government collapses they will be replaced by US comprador reactionaries who will sell out the Iranian people. There is no communist movement in Iran powerful enough to take power, it would be the 2nd most powerful seizing the opening and that would be US backed libs (who we know enable fascists and use fascists as their militant arm)

      • AssortedBiscuits [they/them]
        ·
        2 years ago

        If the IR falls, you can wave goodbye to the Axis of Al-Quds. There's a reason why the PFLP has parades with giant portraits of Soleimani.

    • cawsby [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      2 years ago

      Good insight. Iran has piss poor foreign intelligence services since the sanctions hit. They used to be able to operate freely in much of the West, but their operations have been largely shut down. These are the services a country needs to detect deep infiltration, and Iran is pretty much blind right now. I suspect that not only Western governments but every regional government is receiving offers from high level Iranian officials at this very moment. Iran is falling, and anyone with power or knowledge that is valuable to intelligence agencies is weighing their options. Life for their family in another country or stay while the house of cards falls down.

      The CIA went whole hog for the neoliberal institutionalists in Iran ignoring the Greens and other more pragmatic politicians who many Iranians actually supported. The politicians who were preaching a return to the Iranian Nuclear Deal and opening up those sweet, sweet natural resources are all out of power now, the CIA's decade+ long operation failed.

      The CIA could give af about human rights, and they always want the business friendly folks in charge, and about half of the time they win. I fully expect another CIA coup in Iran after the people take back power if they dare do something like nationalizing their natural resources. Which is the main reason the US cares about Iran at all.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Iran

    • RamrodBaguette [comrade/them, he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      The Iranian Left was so successfully crushed by the Islamists that I consider a Socialist Iran pie-in-the-sky. It's hard to even hope for an anti-NATO bourgeois republic a la Syria or Russia, since a military coup (which is necessary for such a thing to happen) is unlikely due to how powerful and politically-reliable the IRGC is. Even in that event, the US would pounce on any instability and install their own toadies.

    • wtypstanaccount04 [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Didn't that kind of happen with Cuba? Someone who knows more than me on this let me know.