• KollontaiWasRight [she/her,they/them]
    ·
    2 years ago
    1. Ongoing crises will intensify as the dynamics of the current polycrisis mean you can't solve any single element on its own.
    2. War will continue in Ukraine, US funding will flow freely, Russian forces will be reinforced by additional rounds of conscription. Neither nation has an offramp from the conflict that they will willingly take. Neither nation is currently capable of decisive victory. The death-count will continue to climb and domestic unrest in Russia will increase, but it will face harsh crackdowns by the Russian state.
    3. No meaningful progress will be made on reducing carbon emissions on the international level.
    4. UPS workers will go on strike, but face significant public backlash because of their disruption of the treats market.
    5. The UK government will continue to govern without any public support to speak of, but the fecklessness of Labour will ensure there is no way an election will be called early, because the ability of the Labour front bench to find enough Tory malcontents to force through a VoNC will be near zero. The will to do so will also probably be near zero.
    6. A half-assed attempt to unseat Starmer as Labour Leader will eat shit.
    7. Biden will formally announce his reelection campaign. A couple Democrats will attempt to run against him in the primary, but the party will ensure that they have no voice or capacity to build a broad coalition. The electoralist left flank of the Democratic Party will be divided between multiple irrelevant niche candidates. Biden will remain the frontrunner by a mile all year, but he'll have little to no enthusiastic support.
    8. Trump will keep the media guessing on "will he or won't he" for a couple more months before deciding that he will run for President again. He will find himself will far less support than he expects, but Ron DeSantis will not prove to be a viable candidate against him, leaving Trump in a fairly nasty situation where he'll be the Republican frontrunner will little to no real enthusiasm.
    9. China will see a significant rise in COVID infections as controls loosen. Travel back and forth from urban areas during celebrations of the Lunar New Year will result in a fairly significant geographic spread. This will result in significant economic disruption, which will probably create additional internal resentment.
    10. Peru will swing back towards the right as popular anger peters out and exhaustion sets in.
    11. Violence against LGBTQ+ people in the Anglosphere and Europe will increase.
    12. Elections will not be called in Canada, but the Liberal/NDP government will continue to lose popularity and divisions between the two parties will start to show in late 2023.