I’m not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I’m not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I’m saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying “this will be taken care of in a month.”

And this part:

a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo

Is an enormous exaggeration, even if there's a grain of truth. You're confusing the willingness to harm others (mostly indirectly) with a willingness to die for something. It's really easy to find people willing to pick on someone who won't fight back; it's a lot harder when there's even the possibility of significant resistance.