you saw what happened with coronavirus
I think the right might go kill liberals who they think are radical leftist... as well as leftist. Some of the moderate libs will side with the fash.
All the libs who desire stability and a return to normalcy will. They will make comments about how it ducks that armed groups are executing leaders on the street but will do nothing else.
Just head on down to your local fash recruiting office, I guess. Look for the rebel flag and you'll know that you're close.
The first American civil war literally happened under capitalism. Sometimes contradictions in the system need to play themselves out and armed struggle is one of the avenues for that.
It wouldn’t even be that simple. It would be fifty different factions and the failing state fighting guerilla war
Some idiots starting guerilla warfare in the current climate of the US would be extremely destructive. Also they'd be eliminated in, like, less than a month.
Also they’d be eliminated in, like, less than a month.
I mean this has been said about literally every guerilla war ever.
No.
Also what you are saying could also be said for any guerilla war ever. Including some rando who barricades himself at his own house which he declares an autonomous zone while shooting at cops from the balcony, or some larpers pissing off to some swamp and surviving on berries. These are the main ways "guerilla warfare" could come about in the US right now. Dude, trust me, this shit has happened again many times in Europe. There are many groups here who think they are guerrillas (or used to before they were caught) and they never achieved shit, many of them in countries much further from a police state than the US is, and with the left having far more legitimacy. I wish American leftists stopped being so impatient and instead focused on not creeping the fuck out of potential allies with guerilla larping and edginess.
I'm not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I'm not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I'm saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying "this will be taken care of in a month."
There are many groups here who think they are guerrillas (or used to before they were caught) and they never achieved shit, many of them in countries much further from a police state than the US is, and with the left having far more legitimacy.
You're right, but it's silly to take this to the extreme of "guerilla war can't work." It's ahistorical.
I think what you are not considering is the legions of chuds who have been wanking to Glenn Beck for a decade and have rifles and go bags all set up. The right has the full backing of the most extensive military on earth and a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo. We are outnumbered, outgunned, and cannot participate in asymmetrical warfare, because we are outnumbered there too. It’s not like Vietnam where a formal army is fighting guerillas 1000 miles away. It’s a formal army, guerillas, an elaborate spying network, the CIA, and a police state against 10,000 of us with guns we bought at the local sporting goods place. It is absolutely a pipe dream. Decades of propaganda have convinced generations of Americans that leftists are the second coming of the Nazis and they oppose us as hard as we do fascists.
I’m not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I’m not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I’m saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying “this will be taken care of in a month.”
And this part:
a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo
Is an enormous exaggeration, even if there's a grain of truth. You're confusing the willingness to harm others (mostly indirectly) with a willingness to die for something. It's really easy to find people willing to pick on someone who won't fight back; it's a lot harder when there's even the possibility of significant resistance.
I didn't say "guerilla war can't work". I said no kind of guerilla work that could work is anywhere close to the reality of the US today, and that I wish American leftists focused on more practical things and stopped fantasising about stuff only ends up creeping people out.
"The slavers and wealthy northern industrialists should've just voted their way to solving their irreconcilable contradictions of capital"
-Libs
Oh I see, it's epic brain time. Yes that's exactly what I said, good job.
Why do you think you HAVE to talk about war? Is a civil war happening? Is a civil war going to happen any time soon? Maybe you think so, in which case you have a very poor analysis of the situation. But if you think there won't be anything like that, then why do you feel like you ABSOLUTELY MUST talk about it? War doesn't just upset the libs, it upsets everyone who understands what war is.
focused on not creeping the fuck out of potential allies with guerilla larping and edginess
Chapo Chat is not dirtbag leftist, it's milquetoast centrist at best.
What makes you think that point is anywhere close to present? Like, if you want to make the discussion about what a leftist insurgency in the US would look like, you're free to do so in a literary context, maybe if we had some sort of fiction or world building board or something like that. But it is so far removed from present reality that it's genuinely counterproductive and impractical to talk about it.
If that happens, it won't be enough for leftists to have, like, a gun and 3 magazines each that they bought 30 years ago. If that happens, there would need to be well organised circuits to resupply the guerrillas, there would need to be broad alliances, there would need to be serious organization. The conditions under which that will happen are very hard to foresee.
That kind of "prep work" kind of reminds me of doomsday preppers. Like, yeah, OK, who knows, maybe you will live to go through it. But there's more practical things to do now, and you can't foresee the circumstances under which something might happen. If you need a gun to protect yourself today, buy a gun. But setting out plans for what you'd do in an imaginary scenario of an insurgency that you really can't foresee is unproductive, and not just because it is idle speculation at this point, and not just because it creeps people out. It also gives people here the false impression that we're definitely one step before the revolution or something like that, and it makes them divert their attention to the wrong things, and go through manic cycles of "the revolution is here!" and "oh fuck nothing ever happens". I remember when George Floyd started and there were genuinely people here who thought it would turn into an insurgency or revolution or whatever, and shouted you down if you told them that, well, it's super important and you should take advantage of it as much as possible and figure out how to make the gains last, but, you know, it's not really a revolution. And of course they fell into hopelessness after it didn't become what they thought it would. Now it appears like the doomer posting has been dialled back because something is happening again, but it will inevitably start again when this stops.
If you think a civil war is imminent, you get as armed as possible and see what the best way to organize is with the allies you already have. At that point the situation you are dealing with is something concrete. But this is not how you prepare when a civil war is not imminent. Speculation about civil wars when nothing like that can be foreseen leads to people getting confused and making wrong judgements. Leftist politics shouldn't be driven by unfounded speculation but focused on making concrete, long term gains, dealing with concrete situations. It's the same reason why discussions around, say, how to implement socialism are useless.
There is no impending "civil war" because there's no organized left to speak of. No leadership, no program, no territory, no military force regular or irregular. The American "left" can't even agree on a common cause or effective slogans.
No, far more likely is a Years of Lead period but absent the Communist Party. Basically deranged QAnon terrorists and extreme-right militias setting off bombs or shooting protesters either with the outright complicity or begrudgingly hostility of law enforcement. These people are railing against a phantom menace and as a result their violence will be directed in a disorganized and incoherent fashion based on immediate circumstances, whims, and deramged conspiracy theories.
Yeah, not like a 2 sides grand lines of light infantry fighting out in the woods. And it wouldn't be the left instigating such a war, if anything we'd be trying our hardest to prevent it (not least because we don't have the organization to actually contest it and win power for now).
But low-grade civil unrest like The Troubles in Northern Ireland or the Years of Lead in Italy? That's absolutely going to happen, regardless if Trump or Biden wins. Maybe a little more intense like the war in Donbass but with a few factions and in a few regions? That could happen. Maybe just a complete shitshow like Syria? Probably not, but Robert Evans' (@IWriteOK on twitter) It Could Happen Here had a couple reasonable scenarios how civil war could proceed in the US. So far we've been tracking with one of his possible scenarios.
I also think the power of the US media is such that there will be major civil unrest and bombings but all y'all will still pretend it's not a civil war and it'll all be normalized - dozens of politically motivated shootings a few times a week downtown, bombings of major infrastructure, military going AWOL to join local militias, police conducting midnight raids, bearcats and checkpoints, etc. But you'll still have to go to work in the middle of all of that.
Civil war and balkanization remain a pipe dream as long as the bourgeois elements that might lead a faction in any such conflict remain insulated from the dangers of any policy or societal change spurred by other bourgeois classes. You will never have, say, a democrat governor call for secession, peacefully or otherwise, from the union because they wil not feel the negative effects of remaining in such a union. The civil war happened because of an almost impossible to predict coincidence of two conflicting bourgeois systems that threatened each others' existence.
A popular front taking power in its own hand and causing a forcible split seems almost more likely at this point, not one imposed by a moderating force of capitalists.
almost impossible to predict coincidence of two conflicting bourgeois systems that threatened each others’ existence.
lol no one could have predicted it!!!
Never understimate the bourgeoise's capacity for collaboration and collusion whilst staring into the deepest depths of genocide and literal chattel slavery. That it was not immediately abolished upon the formation of the American Republic speaks to this, as the budding rise of industrial capitalism had no issue reaping the spoils of slavery.
Likewise, bourgeois states have collaborated with fascists, war criminals, and absolute theocratic monarchies, and continue to do so to this day. Conflicts of the modern age are conflicts of the bourgeoise. They more often than not collaborate, doubly so if it threatens bourgeois hegemony.
Even here in Australia the cops will be polite and protect far right protests, but will tase, pepper spray and bash left protesters.
The civil war over slavery had two different establishments, western hyper capitalism doesn't. Police and the army will side with the hooting anti science crowd, everyone else deemed 'looters' and 'rioters'.
Meanwhile, guess who’s actually organized and has had DECADES to get their shit together and be a force to do serious damage? The far right, and they have multiple militia groups that have been waiting for this.
How come this has come to be the case, if all three letters agencies always put the importance of right wing terror to very high... like why have they been so succesfull with infiltrating and defanging the left, but not the right? Is there something that makes leftism more susceptible to ops...
Right-wing insurgencies support capitalism and therefore aren't a threat to the system.
Sustained civil-war like attempt to create a new state? Not gonna happen. Organized post-election fash terrorism? I see a world where that happens.
Also, am I dumb to actually be a little worried about Qheads? Their rhetoric is scary, their influence is growing, and those folks are honestly so deranged I don't know if their corporate ghoul masters can successfully leash them.
No, you're not dumb to worry about the Qultists. Luckily, so far they've mainly stuck to online stuff. But if the Qhive comes to an "IRL solution" consensus, shit could get wild quickly.
Cesar Sayoc was just a standard Trump superfan, not a Qultist, IIRC.
The prevalence of Q is scary when it's masses of people, but even scarier when you see people in high places supporting it. The NYPD union leader comes to mind, showing off his Q coffee cup on live TV.
Should be easy to infiltrate if you got a good narrative and a ripe demographic split.
Maybe start a whisper campaign suggesting evangelical leaders are deep state child rapists? Push to unionize child sex workers?
Evangelical leaders are proven child rapists.
You went too far with the child sex workers.
Evangelical leaders are proven child rapists.
Hmmm... might not be outrageous enough to go viral then. How about a rumor that Jim Bakker survivalist buckets of slop get all their nutritional value from the dregs of adrenochrome harvesting?
I swear there was a Q guy that claimed to be Q from the future and garnered a significant following from that, the rest of the Q conspiracy-peddling establishment was all pissed because he just inserted himself so quickly.
Lol at the sinking in of cold, brutal reality taking the form of an empty treat box.
My initial thought was 'no way' but there's a goddamn pandemic and the market's setting records.
Basically "the market" is the s&p 500 and the recession (so far) has been an excellent opportunity to consolidate market share as small businesses fail. Also the fed has thrown trillions of dollars at businesses to keep the line from taking a dive. We'll see if things turn a corner in the next few months, but anything could happen.
A revolution won’t succeed now. We need to buy as much time as possible for the globe
As much as I hate to admit it, you're right. I think the modern left has a big problem with impatience, and sees anything south of an instantaneous revolution as pointless (ie: "lib shit"). That can be true with some things, but even the left's most famous revolutionaries tell us that things like this have to start slowly.
Good take. I'm starting to feel like "tone policing" isn't inherently a bad idea, but only within the left. We can go ahead and be as awful and mean as we want to the bourgeoisie and fascists (in fact we should be) but I find people use that same snarky attitude against people who are ostensibly on their side. It takes some restraint, but I don't think it'd hurt for the left to be less hostile to the people they're trying to radicalize. Keep bullying the right tho
True. I didn't mean that tone should be our biggest priority, I just think it's important for solidarity. Our first priority is uniting the working class, and in order to do that we need to show them that we're on their side. Bluntly telling average working class people to read theory won't get us anywhere, but neither will scolding them for not already being class conscious. One of the right's strengths is how welcoming they are to new members regardless of how knowledgeable they are, and that's something we should emulate (within reason).
To add to that, this also explains why libs come across as so abrasive to non-libs. The "it's not my job to educate you" attitude is exactly the kind of individualist smugness we need to avoid when talking to alienated people.
While I’m entirely pro revolution, you need to get to a state where the vast majority of the proletariat is on your side. That is simply not the case in many countries. We’re going to have to wait, and we’re going to have to do things we don’t like doing, like doing actual physical work to convert the proletariat
Exactly. Look at the liberal discourse these days and you'll find hundreds of people who have got it in their heads that it's not their responsibility to educate anyone, and that the working class should be expected to figure it all out themselves. "Google is free" doesn't help anyone but your own ego. I'm not saying you have to turn everyone you meet into communists, but I believe we all have a personal responsibility as leftists to at least try to educate others.
“As revolutionaries, we don’t have the right to say we are tired of explaining. We must never stop explaining. We know that when the people understand, they cannot help but follow us.” - Comrade Sankara
I think the chances for it souls rely on the right. Remember as much as we hate to admit it Donald Trump showed that the right is more anti establishment overall right now then we are.
The right is not predictable anymore but they are, as a whole, less trustworthy or authority or believing what is on the news. They will be the ones to break the capitalistic hedonic treadmill not us.
The right is definitely not anti-establishment. What they want is a different face of the establishment. Instead of Clintons they want(ed) Bush. Instead of CNN they want Fox News. Instead of "the big goberment"(aka communism) they want someone with billion dollar in his bank account, a suit, a white skin and a southern accent to come meet and greet them in a limousine and teach them exactly what to do and how to "grow up" to become like that.
Right wingers are just as alienated as liberals, and that alienation makes them even more easily duped into taking the class and material interests of the capitalists who oppress them as their own.
The only thing Trump made clear is that the imperial core is no longer capable of sustaining the illusions and promises of neoliberalism. American's will eventualy be treated just like 3rd world workers. And Trump is no threat to the capitalist class, if he was he wouldn't be here in the first place. Between the tax cuts and incentives he is as big of a pawn as they can get, Biden btw promised "no changes" exactly because it would go against what Trump has been doing i.e the Capitalist class interests.
How is the right anti-establishment? They absolutely love the police. They viciously oppose anything that could hurt the profits of billionaires. They're the best friend the establishment could ask for.
