I'm just disappointed in Russia for militarily blundering into something that's been predicted in even the most lib academic foreign policy circles since before the Soviet Union actually dissolved. They were and are a declining superpower but come on, they clearly have resources, and it's their neighbor. Figure out how to resist US imperialism while getting most of what you want...
Dragging out the war is far more beneficial for them
the war literally started with a mad dash to cut the head off Ukraine and end it in days. why would the beginning of a campaign begin with a move contrary to their priorities?
a war where they're proportionally burning more nato equipment is still way more expensive than counterinsurgency. speaking of nato equipment losses---the US never was running low on weapons while occupying & anti-insurgency-ing two whole ass countries that hated their guts. Russia has spent far more in blood & materiel than it would be in a counterinsurgency campaign. and if annexed territories were legit pro-annexation then guerillas wouldn't have much support, no? i have no idea how doing a hot war with mobilization doesn't count as 'bogged down' but okay
if they just made a mad dash to Kiev
but they did go straight for Kiev at the beginning, not 'if'. you seem to imply this'd mean Russia occupying the whole country instead of just making Kiev surrender & give up the same territory they've gotten on the fastest timeline possible.
I really think Russia genuinely thought Ukraine would collapse instantly (even NATO did). I think it is entirely possible for a country to fuck up a war.
more expensive for NATO campaign >>>> the costs of rooting out some neonazi guerillas in novorossiya. im not saying the assessment is incorrect its just incontrovertibly more expensive than counterinsurgency. the US did an occupation of afghanistan for 20 damn years without ever mobilizing significant industrial or manpower resources. Russia's already had to expand its manpower.
and unless you're game for Russian casualty figures sub-10,000 & that this won't go up for a decade i can pretty confidently assert less would've been killed occupying & fighting guerillas
Putin ordered his generals to stop to the annoyance of his own generals
until we get internal docs this is speculation. the "stop order" during fall gelb was routinely called a meddling hitler political mistake until it was revealed how stretched supplies had gotten. we really don't know though & if its just Putin's personal fault, lmao, lol even.
you're completely talking past me at someone arguing that Russia wants/ed to occupy/annex the whole of Ukraine, and it was a choice between that protracted occupation & the present war of attrition
i'm saying the Russians earnestly pursued an objective of capturing Kiev and forcing a capitulation at the early stage of the war, that they did not want a drawn-out conflict. i don't think they were interested in occupying the whole Ukraine, they'd use an occupied Kiev to dictate a cession of Crimea et-al & force them to stay out of NATO. that's a fucking 'Special Military Operation', if it'd actually worked.
My best guess at the moment (heavy emphasis on guess) is that the Russians are hoping to grind down Ukrainian and NATO resources until Ukraine collapses internally. I could easily see a civil war in Ukraine after this war ends. And they have largely already succeeded at destroying a bunch of NATO weapons/ammo reserves that NATO can't easily replace at the moment.
In the context of a military response, which is what we got, sure. There's always a non-military option, until it's too late. Information operations, propaganda, diplomacy and negotiations. The US shouldn't be allowed to be so unparalleled in these actions, inside a neighbor's borders.
I think they honestly thought Ukraine would collapse quickly. I remember in the days before the invasion that there was a ton of propaganda that was basically Russia's army is masculine, Ukraine is a they / them army or something along those lines. It is entirely possible for a countries leaders to assume that they are better than the really are at fighting.
I think they had plenty of evidence of how it went in Crimea to base their estimations on, but things were pretty different both in Ukraine and internationally in 2014 compared to 2022.
I'm just disappointed in Russia for militarily blundering into something that's been predicted in even the most lib academic foreign policy circles since before the Soviet Union actually dissolved. They were and are a declining superpower but come on, they clearly have resources, and it's their neighbor. Figure out how to resist US imperialism while getting most of what you want...
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the war literally started with a mad dash to cut the head off Ukraine and end it in days. why would the beginning of a campaign begin with a move contrary to their priorities?
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a war where they're proportionally burning more nato equipment is still way more expensive than counterinsurgency. speaking of nato equipment losses---the US never was running low on weapons while occupying & anti-insurgency-ing two whole ass countries that hated their guts. Russia has spent far more in blood & materiel than it would be in a counterinsurgency campaign. and if annexed territories were legit pro-annexation then guerillas wouldn't have much support, no? i have no idea how doing a hot war with mobilization doesn't count as 'bogged down' but okay
but they did go straight for Kiev at the beginning, not 'if'. you seem to imply this'd mean Russia occupying the whole country instead of just making Kiev surrender & give up the same territory they've gotten on the fastest timeline possible.
I really think Russia genuinely thought Ukraine would collapse instantly (even NATO did). I think it is entirely possible for a country to fuck up a war.
Keep in mind the US was fighting against shepherds in those two wars, not a whole-ass military with artillery and air assets.
well yeah, but OP is saying the Russians have chosen conventional warfare over irregular for reasons of cost
I assume artillery shells are cheaper to replace than troops are to train and replace
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more expensive for NATO campaign >>>> the costs of rooting out some neonazi guerillas in novorossiya. im not saying the assessment is incorrect its just incontrovertibly more expensive than counterinsurgency. the US did an occupation of afghanistan for 20 damn years without ever mobilizing significant industrial or manpower resources. Russia's already had to expand its manpower.
and unless you're game for Russian casualty figures sub-10,000 & that this won't go up for a decade i can pretty confidently assert less would've been killed occupying & fighting guerillas
until we get internal docs this is speculation. the "stop order" during fall gelb was routinely called a meddling hitler political mistake until it was revealed how stretched supplies had gotten. we really don't know though & if its just Putin's personal fault, lmao, lol even.
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you're completely talking past me at someone arguing that Russia wants/ed to occupy/annex the whole of Ukraine, and it was a choice between that protracted occupation & the present war of attrition
i'm saying the Russians earnestly pursued an objective of capturing Kiev and forcing a capitulation at the early stage of the war, that they did not want a drawn-out conflict. i don't think they were interested in occupying the whole Ukraine, they'd use an occupied Kiev to dictate a cession of Crimea et-al & force them to stay out of NATO. that's a fucking 'Special Military Operation', if it'd actually worked.
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My best guess at the moment (heavy emphasis on guess) is that the Russians are hoping to grind down Ukrainian and NATO resources until Ukraine collapses internally. I could easily see a civil war in Ukraine after this war ends. And they have largely already succeeded at destroying a bunch of NATO weapons/ammo reserves that NATO can't easily replace at the moment.
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In the context of a military response, which is what we got, sure. There's always a non-military option, until it's too late. Information operations, propaganda, diplomacy and negotiations. The US shouldn't be allowed to be so unparalleled in these actions, inside a neighbor's borders.
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I think they honestly thought Ukraine would collapse quickly. I remember in the days before the invasion that there was a ton of propaganda that was basically Russia's army is masculine, Ukraine is a they / them army or something along those lines. It is entirely possible for a countries leaders to assume that they are better than the really are at fighting.
I think it's entirely possible they really drank their own kool-aid and didn't assess the reality of what an invasion would require.
I think they had plenty of evidence of how it went in Crimea to base their estimations on, but things were pretty different both in Ukraine and internationally in 2014 compared to 2022.
imagine not learning from george bush's mistakes
Before this I thought Russia was way smarter than it seemed.
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Clearly the NATO training paid off. And enough Ukrainians are willing to fight.