Image is of Russian mercenary Frodonov Bagginsky, standing in the ruins of Bakhmut after the battle concluded.
After nearly a year of intense fighting for the town of Bakhmut, Russian forces have finally reached full control.
While tens of thousands of lives have ended in the area in and around Bakhmut, perhaps almost as interesting as the battle itself has been the war of narratives over it. The state propagandists in the West have spent a lot of effort muddying the waters about the battle for the city, to the extent that the two sides now live in effectively separate realities.
If you are pro-Ukraine, the reality you observe is that this was an excellent maneuver by the Ukrainians - as the Russians send in their troops in human wave attacks armed only with shovels, you have achieved a 1:7 casualty ratio in your favor. You have fundamentally weakened the Russian army because, for some inscrutable reason, they have decided to attack one of the strongest parts of your front line - this reveals the inherent stupidity of the Ruskies. Let them have the city for all you care - it has zero importance and you will soon recapture it. You are, in fact, one step closer to winning the war - far from losing it.
If you are pro-Russian, the reality you observe is that this was an excellent maneuver by the Russians. By utilizing your massive artillery advantage over the enemy side, sometimes achieving over ten times the number of shells fired on any given day, you can easily attrit enemy forces and you have done so, achieving a 1:7 casualty ratio in your favor. As Bakhmut is a central city in the fortification line, Ukraine has no choice but to defend it with all their strength, which allowed you to create a cauldron which has been the death of tens of thousands of troops, at the expense of only mercenaries. The logistical links that capturing the city has both created for you and severed for the enemy will make future campaigns easier, and you are now capable of advancing into territory that hasn't spent the last eight years being fortified by all NATO has to offer. You are, in fact, one step closer to winning the war - far from losing it.
While I would love to be a very smart enlightened centrist and go "Well, both sides have a point here..." all evidence I can discern points to the Russian position and away from the Ukrainian one. When Zelensky went to the US and spoke before Congress earlier this year, he said:
To ensure Bakhmut is not just a stronghold that holds back the Russian Army, but for the Russian Army to completely pull out, more cannons and shells are needed. If so, just like the Battle of Saratoga, the fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
This week's third update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the warzone.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
The state has a near monopoly on weapons and violence. Entrenching that to a total monopoly gives them an even bigger edge. When material conditions reach the breaking point its quite possible Right wing Chuds and Communist will unite against the Liberal Oligarchs similar to how the KMT and CPC worked together to overthrow the Qing dynasty.
The Qing dynasty fell in 1911. Pretty sure the CPC was founded sometime in the 20’s.
Neither the KMT nor the CPC existed when the Qing dynasty was overthrown.
The people who overthrew the Qing Dynasty eventually became the KMT and CPC. Communists and nationalists fought together because of material conditions and then split over ideology.
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The CPC didn't even exist when the Qing dynasty got overthrown. The founders of the CPC were participants of the May 4th movement, which happened 8 years after the Qing dynasty was overthrown.
The KMT didn't officially exist before the Qing dynasty was overthrown either. What you had was the Tongmenghui, which later became the KMT, except Sun Yat-sen and key players of that resistance group were exiled in Japan when the Qing dynasty was overthrown.
Like, this is terrible history. Why does this comment have 16 upvotes lol
The people who overthrew the Qing Dynasty eventually became the KMT and CPC. Communists and nationalists fought together because of material conditions and then split over ideology.
That's not true either since one of the principal architects of the Xinhai Revolution was an opportunist Qing general named Yuan Shikai who would crown himself Emperor after overthrowing the Qing. If you're talking about the Wuchang Uprising, it was done by factions of the New Army, an army corp formed under the Qing who were loyal to Yuan. Like, a big part of how the Qing got overthrown was Yuan wanting to do the typical thing of overthrowing the current dynasty and establishing his own imperial dynasty. The KMT like to hype up their involvement in the Xinhai Revolution through the Tongmenghui, but the entire early history of the ROC was completely steered by Yuan for the simple reason that Yuan had an army while Sun didn't.
The New Army would eventually become the Beiyang Army, and it was this Beiyang Army, controlled by the Beiyang Clique, that the KMT and CPC formed a united front against. The Beiyang Clique were ousted from power when the KMT and CPC embarked on the Northern Expedition.
It's more accurate to say the KMT and CPC overthrew the people who overthrew the Qing.
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Not only is this absolutely fanfic of the highest order, I wouldn't want it to happen. I dont want to fight alongside CHUDs who want me to be dead lmao. No thanks.
ETA: Admitteldy I missed the "oligarchs" in this sentence but I still feel weird about this. LIke i know the revolution will be a class war but damn wording it that way feels gross.
It is more likely that fascism will ride electoralism to power. but if it doesn't....
Class contradictions would draw the line in a violent revolution putting many right wing people on the same side as the left. Our goals should be not to stop this cooperation but to know when the time is right to turn on them before they turn on us.
This is what we should learn from the USSR/KMT/CPC relationship before the Chinese civil war. Use the Chuds and try to change their ideology during the struggle, then betray/dispose of the nationalists and fascists as soon as we have the upper hand against the capitalists.