Erdogan has won the election with 52% of the vote, with a voter turnout of 85%, winning five more years as president.
Naked Capitalism's diagnosis of Kilicdaroglu's failure is that he had to somehow simultaneously keep pro-KPDP voters on board and also attract voters of nationalist candidates from the first round, and was unable to square that circle.
Erdogan's party has lost seats in the parliament as nationalist parties have outflanked him on refugee issues - and even Kilicdaroglu couldn't seem to move against that tide, as he called for the urgent expulsion of 10 million refugees. The Nationalist Movement Party is now at 10.4% in the parliament, a party with ties to the Grey Wolves. Far right parties got more than 30% of the parliamentary vote. The left was unable to capture enough voters who have suffered in the economic crisis, with inflation rates have sharply risen far above even Europe's, and these voters instead went down the "blame my problems on refugees" path.
As a silver lining to this shitstain, this does at least mean that any hopes by NATO that Turkey will move towards the West more are probably dashed. This isn't to say that Erdogan will scorn the West - far from it, in fact, he let Finland in to NATO and will probably let Sweden in - but the :both-sides: strategy will continue, for better and worse, and if you aren't with the West, then you are against them.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
This week's third update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the warzone.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
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Serbs boycotted an election. By the old rules, Kosovo needs a minimum amount of voter participation for things to be legitimate. (as legitimate as things can be for a breakaway state that a lot of countries don’t recognize) However the rules don’t matter so NATO can do whatever it wants. The problem is that if Kosovo breaks down, the Serbs in Bosnia Herzegovina will also revolt. Add this to Moldova’s issues with Gaugazia and you the west will basically have to declare war on all Russian proxies in Eastern Europe all at once. The question is whether Russia will accept that.
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Kosovo is a tiny little NATO state they propped up to splinter Yugoslavia when they were destroying the nation. It's akin to what Israel is in the middle-east, an imperialist foothold that plays all the local groups against each other and keeps the place divided and unstable.
Serbs are still mad about NATO bombing and destroying them and resent the illegitimate NATO-backed rule of Kosovo. Kosovo special forces are real pieces of shit, monstrous.
Are there any good primers on all of this, particularly the Serbian war, from as unbiased a source as can exist (like a materialist one)? I've been curious about it because I know the NATO intervention is always spoken against, but the only thing I know about it is that it was to stop a genocide, and I'd like to learn more that isn't the NATO side.
Your namesake wrote one, To Kill a Nation
Cheers, I just took the name as a bit, I'll have to dig into it
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Kosovo exists because ethnic Albanians exist in Kosovo, Serbs feel strongly about Kosovo because it has some 'historic value' to them, basically balkan Alamo, and resentment because some Serbs believe that Yugoslavia fell apart because of protests that started in Kosovo.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Myth Long story is that Kosovo is basically like eastern Europe’s version of the battle in which Roland died, a great mythologized battle that involved betrayal, gallantry, race war and self sacrifice. It became a symbol of ottoman oppression and Balkan nationalism, so Serbia losing it was basically en par with what would have happened if Britain invaded Spain and gave Andalusia back to the descendants of Morrocans (Spain expelled most Moriscos, don’t think about the analogy too hard)
Gaugazia is a separate matter, basically it’s like transnistria accept the region partially reintegrated democratically. Now that democracy doesn’t matter, everybody is ignoring the self determination of the pro Russian locals.
:tito: -> :stress: -> :amerikkka: :nuke: -> :stress: