Map of Russian fortification lines on the Zaporozhye front.
The counteroffensive has begun, after a series of failed Ukrainian attacks in the preceding few days. The axis of attack does appear to be towards Tokmak, which is also the strongest part of the Russian defensive line.
From the late night of June 7th/very early morning of June 8th onwards, Ukraine has been sending waves of forces in to attack Russian defense lines. Ukrainian air defense is barely active if at all, with Russian aviation able to freely attack Ukrainian columns going through minefields. We've seen potential glances of Leopards and various western armored vehicles. Russian morale seems high so far.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
This week's third update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the warzone.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
The level of mental gymnastics it takes to write that and not see anything wrong with it is insane.
The smartest history channel watchers have decided that the lesson from the Maginot line is that any fortification or digging in defensively is actively harmful and easily defeated.
"Why doesn't Ukraine simply blitzkrieg against a 21st century military". Incredible brains.
but the line didnt even get broken... they just went around through the ardennes
Something the French anticipated, they just fucked up the timing on reorganizing their forces! It's really funny how the pop documentary understanding of this stuff can be debunked by... the literal voiceover of the same documentary lol.
Yep and it allowed the French Army to mobilize and potentially launch an invasion of Germany using the Maginot Line as the starting point. The General Staff however was pretty incompetent and we know what happened.
Hell, even in late 44 and early 45 chunks of the now almost dismantled Maginot Line were reactivated and used by the defending german army with some success, they proved to be a very powerful asset during battles such as Metz. Pretty much all attempts by the Germans to break through the line in 1940 were met with abysmal losses, these were never serious attempts because the line was THAT good.
allowed the French Army to mobilize and potentially launch an invasion of Germany using the Maginot Line as the starting point
Nothing potential about it. The French did launch the Saar offensive in 1939 from the Maginot line. It was unsuccessful as the French army just wasn't up to snuff at the time. They were able to retreat back to the Maginot line without the Nazis overrunning them.
clearly, Ukraine must replicate this by going around via Kherson (or that hilarious image last week where Ukraine loops around Russian defenses starting at Belgorod oblast and just marches south and then west and retakes everything)
I have a third idea though - people only think of left or right when thinking about going around fortifications. but there's an entire axis unused here. that's right - we need to bring back blimps and stuff them full of thousands of soldiers, Trojan Horse style. Russia won't shoot it down because they'll be too busy saying "Wow, what a cool blimp!"
at the same time, we use Elon Musk's Boring company to dig a tunnel right underneath the fortifications.
Yes the german army got extremely lucky and did a risky maneuver by crossing bad terrain (for warfare). Its almost like the moment when Germany wracked its navy during operation weserübung , leaving them unable to destroy the british.
Adidas may be returning to Russia on November 1st. Russians will finally be able to buy tracksuits again. Nature is healing.
Evo Morales : Some "socialists" use Allende's image to ask for votes, but when they get power they apply Pinochet's policies. Instead of condemning the coups promoted by the US, they accompany the defense of the coup leaders in Bolivia with their silence.
He is 100% refering to boric
Dunno if this qualifies as "news" but the Auschwitz museum is calling actual Holocaust survivors liars now :what-the-hell:
I guess they're trying to downplay that other countries participated in the Holocaust?decades-long efforts to eliminate them
:thonk: hasn't the west been giving guns and training to those nazi patch wearing azovs for about a decade now?
Who let all these Nazis build political power and legitimize themselves?
:who-did-this: :anglo-burn: :eu-cool:
"Listen, we've been trying to get rid of Nazis, honest"
-The people who supported the Euromaidan coupe and whose progenitors pushed through Operation Paperclip, Operation Bloodstone, etc
Daily reminder, these dipshits are either too incopetent or confident in their free press BS that they still leave all their original talking points up for you to go and find it. Stupid tweet replies going on about "Russian propaganda" even though western media covered this years ago.
This is the easiest point to debunk but unfortunately nothing is changing, the same stupid talking point and a discussion that goes around in circles
Google ukraine azov nazi before:2018-01-01
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/359609-the-reality-of-neo-nazis-in-the-ukraine-is-far-from-kremlin-propaganda/
this passage is actualy full of links too
Azov’s neo-Nazi character has been covered by the New York Times, the Guardian, the BBC, the Telegraph and Reuters, among others. On-the-ground journalists from established Western media outlets have written of witnessing SS runes, swastikas, torchlight marches, and Nazi salutes. They interviewed Azov soldiers who readily acknowledged being neo-Nazis. They filed these reports under unambiguous headlines such as “How many neo-Nazis is the U.S. backing in Ukraine?” and “Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis.”
How is this Russian propaganda?
The U.N. and Human Rights Watch have accused Azov, as well as other Kiev battalions, of a litany of human rights abuses. In 2016, the Simon Wiesenthal Center caught Azov trying to recruit neo-Nazis in France; Brazilian authorities have uncovered similar attempts in Brazil. Azov’s official page on VK, a social media site used in Ukraine and Russia, features images of a white power tattoo and the Totenkopf symbol used by SS concentration camp guards and neo-Nazis today.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/brazilian-neo-nazis-recruited-to-fight-ukrainian-civil-war/
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-far-right-menace-radical-militants-ultranationalists/
Goes on and on... Anyway you can make a huge archive of this shit if there isn't one already.
Apparently the way to deradicalise nazis is to give them a bunch of guns and military training, then never reprimand them as you integrate them into your military while they shell civilian centres.
Western media gaslight people for what 2 whole fucking years that there was no neo-nazis in Ukraine and NOW they're admitting "um, uh, we may have been wrong" BLOW ME.
They’re manufacturing consent for withdrawing support for Russian proxy neonazis, this is just a way to threaten Zellensky
I'm surprised the comments are calling them out for it.
Just commenting to bump and also to remind @SeventyTwoTrillion that the lurkers support your efforts everyday!
Not just you all other news posters too but you’re the OP you dig
Ukraine's trying a night attack on the Zaporozhye front. Sending tanks and light vehicles in, probably hoping that their night vision technology is superior to the Russians'. Russian aviation is working. Ukrainian HIMARS is working (maybe not so well, idk). Seems like a big battle, bigger than a reconnaissance in force.
Some of the Russian commentators are asleep so we might only get drips of information.
edit: LOTS of Russian aircraft and helicopters flying around. Double digit numbers of each. It's a big one tonight. Maybe even THE big one.
edit: Ukraine tried to hit Tokmak with HIMARS. Russian anti-air is working and shot at least a large number if not all of them down. Ukraine has finally found where its stocks of artillery ammo are and are using them to cover their tank assaults. I expect them to break through at least somewhere on the first line - then we might see how the main defensive line through Tokmak holds. I don't envy Ukrainians having to navigate a minefield at night with helicopters and aircraft and artillery firing at you.
edit: I've heard absolutely nothing about territorial changes or captured settlements, good or bad, but it doesn't sound so good for the Ukrainians in terms of casualties. will it all be "worth" it (it's never really going to be worth it) or all for nothing?
edit: sounds like a massacre. five rounds of Russian sorties. tentatively, it looks like Russia's repelled the attacks so far and contained the pressure and Ukraine might be forced to retreat back very soon unless they have something up their sleeves. this is not the panicked, low-morale Russian force that the West hoped for at the very least.
edit: the Ukrainians just keep coming. yet more Russian sorties. Russians are also hitting Kharkiv and Sumy with missiles or drones.
edit: and they keep coming and coming. I don't throw the term "human wave attack" around lightly, but... anyway, on the meme war side of things, Russians on social media are making jokes about the probing. we've now got the prober to add to the coomer family.
edit: it's gonna be a long night I think. it's getting pretty absurd. I legitimately wonder if Russian forces on the front line will run out of ammunition before Ukraine stops sending waves in. Russian helicopters stopped working for a bit - they weren't shot down or anything, they had to land to refuel because the Ukrainians keep sending waves in.
edit: sunrise in Ukraine has arrived. a war correspondent has said that the tanks are turning around. I wanna see that Ukraine isn't doing a third attempt before I hang up my hat on this comment.
final edit: okay, if the doomer Rybar is saying that the attack was unsuccessful and Ukraine is retreating then that's enough confirmation for me. we'll have a clearer idea of what happened in the coming hours and days but holy moly. I have no idea what the Ukrainians were thinking.
finaler edit: apparently Ukrainian communications indicate that they'll try again in the morning. jesus christ.
Things in NYC are seriously not ok. 5 minutes outside with a KN95 and N95 mask and I am having immense trouble breathing and my throat and eyes hurt. The sky is orange and I can’t see more than two blocks in any direction.
HOWEVER, we must consider that destroying earth’s climate is very profitable for 12 people
What a waste of life this all is. There is no way Ukraine can win a conventional war against Russia without an air force. A bunch of hand me down f16s won't change that.
If you at past asymmetric conflicts, even Vietnam had an air force. And while the Taliban did not, they were not fighting a conventional war against the USA. And I don't see Ukraine goiing the way of guerilla warfare anytime soon.
Even the most pro Ukraine people have to see this.
Pentagon Releases Images That Appear To Show Random Chinese Guy
WASHINGTON—Claiming the seemingly unconnected private citizen was evidence of something probably, the Pentagon released images Tuesday that appeared to show a random Chinese guy. “Though we do not know his name or anything about him, we in the U.S. military find these newly declassified satellite photographs of a random Chinese national incredibly concerning,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, highlighting several disturbing pictures that appeared to depict the Chinese man going about a regular day of shopping and socializing with friends. “It is not yet known what he is capable of given that we have zero information about who he is, but we have it on good authority that he has ties to China dating back at least 40 years to when he was born. This is the biggest national security threat we’ve encountered outside of the leaked images of three arbitrary Iranian women that were recently uncovered.” At press time, Chinese military officials had responded by releasing their own image of a random American.
and others have repeatedly said that all the predictions of dates in the western media and by the Ukrainian government is propaganda designed to make Russia confused or complacent
This is an interesting point. The US did the same thing in Desert Storm. Every single night for 4 months before the first strikes they massed hundreds of strike craft on the border and just flew around. They did this so that it was normalised within the command structure on the iraqi side so that when the offensive they intended to carry out did occur everyone felt like the number of craft in the sky was just normal, so the fact it was actually the attack received a slower response.
This is notable when it comes to these kinds of offensives because the difference between the anti-air people readying themselves within 30 seconds or within 5-10 minutes is an absolutely massive one.
Russia did the same at the beginning of the war, assembled their forces on the border.
Yeah it's a really simple tactic that seems difficult to defend against because you can't really change the fact that it becomes boring for everyone involved. Everything the same as it usually is? Great. Same old... Until it isn't.
It's also how the US keeps "stumbling" into wars for its entire existence. It doesn't just wake up and trip into a conflict in the Philippines or the Balkans. It applied pressure, kept pushing, kept inching closer and closer to war for decades. Same thing they are doing in Taiwan currently and were doing in Ukraine after 2014. NATO knows what its doing, they know they are encroaching and suffocating resistance.
Yes but RUS has total control over the sky now. I wonder how long UKR can linger around the front without becoming easy targets
When the US does a realpolitik: OMG SO SWEET ❤️
When China does a realpolitik: Hello?! Human resources?!
I do not envy the Ukrainian conscripts being sent on the third wave attack of the day against Russian troops that have had a year to prepare defensive lines for what might be the most telegraphed counteroffensive of all time
