So many libs are gonna be down and out after this, like they’re not gonna believe that wandering shouting VOTE at random people couldn’t get them the win. We need to have like pamphlets and memes we can spam literally fucking everywhere to highlight the failures of the dems and give people resources to learn more about communism

    • gayhobbes [he/him]
      1·
      4 years ago

      It’s a common myth around here but Biden is polling well in both national and statewide polls to where even voter suppression would likely not be enough

        • gayhobbes [he/him]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Yeah, I know, that was the issue of running a metrics-based prediction system. I've talked about this before but the real reason that Hillary lost is that they relied on this algorithm Ada that told her where to campaign next. It ignored conventional wisdom like, y'know, campaign in Wisconsin, and that's why she never even campaigned there in 2016, and she lost by a VERY thin margin, like 40,000 votes. Midwest polling has gotten better in the past four years, but as someone who works in tech, I'd NEVER advise someone to just trust their metrics to run shit. It's only as good as the info you put into it, and to your point, who do those polls represent?

          For what it's worth Trump is polling badly by a nearly 10% margin with seniors and suburbanites though, and that was his base last time.

            • gayhobbes [he/him]
              ·
              4 years ago

              I keep hearing that trump has over 90% approval among republicans. Assuming this is true, that does only mean within the party, right?

              Yes, and that's what tends to overrepresent his support. Not all states require you to register by party, but in the 31 states where we can track that information, 29% of Americans are registered independent, 29% are registered Republican, and 39% are registered Democrat. That's just of all registered voters, though, and registering to vote for a party doesn't mean that they reflect your values. So when they poll people, he's got 90% support of people who self-identify as Republican.

              Honestly his not campaigning doesn't seem to dent his support at all. He's doing numbers at least double what Hillary has, no one really seemed to give much a shit about the Kamala thing (except us, of course), and if anything the whole RBG death is going to galvanize Democrats. They just broke fundraising goals last night.

              I would never say something's in the bag but it's pretty rosy.