I once assumed that small incremental environmentally conscious steps in how people lived, worked, and played were inevitable. I'm talking smaller, more energy efficient, and safer vehicles, vegetable protein substitutes in place of industrialized meat products becoming generally accepted and even the norm, and I even had naive presumptions about some imminent expansion of mass transportation because it simply made more economic sense.
But that was all before I learned the power of 
"russia isn't going to invade ukraine, this is just nato paranoia to make the population anxious"
that aged like fucking milk
i posted that like a day or two before they rolled tanks across the border lmao
I know I was wrong, but look, the approach I took to come to that conclusion has led me to be right about the last 10 similar things
MLism in action
i say this as an ML
(though i am veering wildly towards MLM tbh)
Tbf it wasn’t even my MLism that brought me to that conclusion, it was just “Assume the US State Department is always lying”
fair lol
I still can't believe it. The only way it makes sense is if Putin thought he was going to end it in a week and was surprised when he didn't, and now I'm personally convinced that all postwar military strategy is basically worthless in the face of modern man-portable anti-tank and anti-air weaponry.
ikr
it looked like an obvious endless quagmire to me
and i'm a fucking idiot lol
I mean I'd say it's been a bit of a drawn out quagmire so far, shit's been brutal and I'm still surprised Russia has had the stomach to deal with it
Even if Putin had occupied most of Ukraine I feel like it still would have been a quagmire just more of a CIA counterinsurgency quagmire (this was actually my day 1 prediction for how things would go)
when Zelensky started talking about acquiring nuclear weapons in the week before the invasion I think that kinda sealed it
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I didn't post much about it because I thought it was that empty a threat.
time makes fools of us all
"Russia won't invade Ukraine. Macron has multiple talks with Putin to diffuse tension and even the Ukrainian president Zelensky has called on the US to stop saying Russia will invade Ukraine. Are you saying we shouldn't trust the judgment of the president of Ukraine?" - Me the week before Russia invaded Ukraine
Boy did was I wrong on multiple accounts lol
Yeah, lotta egg on my face over that one
in our defence, it was a really fucking bad idea lol
I mean, IDK, Russia withstood the sanctions, NATO is running out of weapons to send, and dollar hegemony is waning steadily.
fair
though there will be a pretty much endless "insurgency" funded by the "international community" for decades to come
I was expecting maybe some escalation like sending some troops in Donetsk and Luhansk but not full scale war.
In hindsight I think leftists give anti-US powers like Russia too much credit sometimes just for being anti-US, they're just awful bougie states in the end and are gonna do evil bougie shit.
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I thought for sure they were just rolling tanks into the Donetsk Oblast on a "peacekeeping and protection" style of operation, and that we were seeing a repeat of the Russo-Georgian War. No fucking way they would actually start a large-scale war, right? This is just typical western propaganda, blowing this way out of proportion. They can't be right about tank columns moving on Kiev, that must be Ukrainian tanks that some excited AP reporter accidentally reported as Russian. I lost a lot of influence among friends who usually wanted to know my takes about world events.
At first I thought it was going to be nothing, but my final pre-invasion prediction was that there was going to be an escalation in the Donbas (Russia annexes the republics, maybe goes for complete control of their respective oblasts, but overall that it would remain localised... and then Russia just did a mad dash for Kiev and I knew I'd been completely wrong