housing prices are already on their way down. when people can no longer pay the absurd mortgages they've taken on, we'll see a wave of foreclosures.

Houses have further become Pokémon cards for the wealthy to trade, a correction is a sale for these ghouls.

I kind of feel like its not ever going to get better, atleast in places where people want to live.

It depends heavily on the market. Prices have come down in some areas, but the desirable places to be (like where I am) aren't seeing much change. Prices near me have just stopped increasing, but are still double what they were in Q1 2020.

In terms of affordability, it's actually worse now due to the interest rates being what they are. On top of that, fewer people are selling because if they jump from one mortgage to another, they'll get killed with the higher rate. For an average house in my area, the rate hike increases the monthly cost of a mortgage by like $800 and that's for some starter home from the 70s or something.

wow not in California unfortunately

i live in a generally LCOL region in a MCOL small city. the housing market here has generally been acknowledged as "tight" (houses put on the market are sold very fast) for about 6 years. though, generally, i would describe the prices as reasonable compared to median salaries up until about 4-5 years ago. rents starting climbing up fast and then home prices went up 50% or more in a very short time.

historically, the housing inventory for this city in the last decade or so stayed around 2000 on average, swinging each year +/- 300. this refers to homes listed on the market. in the last few years, that number has plummeted to something like 500. meanwhile, houses designated as "short term rentals" (airbnb, vrbo, etc) went from 0 to about 1400.

i'm not going to say airBNB type shit is entirely responsible for the current recognized-by-local-government housing crisis. certainly, there was downward pressure on residential construction for a bit during COVID, but in the last years, tons of multi-unit construction has popped up (5-over-1s, etc) and seems like 75% of it was cannibalized by conversion into short term rentals.

i will say i think there was a STR bubble that is probably deflating now due to whatever the fuck, the recession, recognition that STRs often suck ass to stay in, etc. i don't know that this will translate into lower housing prices, but i would bet they won't climb for a while as some these bozos can no longer cover their mortgage payments with STR income. and that might translate into lower home prices if the trend continues for a while / how many of these people are over leveraged.

The bottom of the housing market for the 2008 recession was late 2011. Even if we are at the start of a deflationary period with regards to housing prices, it will take years to see the full effect.

I lived out of airbnbs the past few months, for a second stint with the last one being pre-pandemic. One reason these are down is that the platform is getting terrible. It's full of scams and extremely aggressive landlords. One had a $5000 late checkout fee, another one had a $300 rule infraction fee, and you don't know about it until you already paid and there is a zero refund policy if you don't agree. Many wanted me to make an account with some random property management service. The properties are worse too, I think all the good ones were sold when housing prices jumped up.

No bust, only boom!

Airbnb's and similar rentals are more of an effect of housing price growth than a cause. There aren't SO MANY airbnb's that they're the major driver of demand, but in hot markets rich fucks sitting on 5 houses turn them into airbnb's. The list is also organized in an interesting way, sorting by percent drop. Are most airbnb markets dropping in revenue? If 2/3 of markets are stable or growing then a decrease in mostly southern markets where the weather is getting unbearable for tourists won't cause a full collapse. Also, are other airbnb-esque services like vrbo losing revenue in these areas? This table is just missing a lot of information. When I look at this it looks like people didn't want to travel to the south last summer. Even if airbnb did collapse, blackstone or local capitalists would just buy all the houses and turn them into rentals or let them sit empty.