For me, it's too early for any bold claims but I don't see it going away quietly. It's weird, the mercenary wars of the 60's and 80's - some of them were rather silly proxy wars between USSR and USA (Nigeria was a total mess), but lots of them were USSR backing great communist leaders like Lumumba who had the peoples support.
In this case though - the coup is originally anti France, anti colonial, it goes forward, and then they decide to brazenly wave the flag of the West's greatest enemy (Russia). It's not like there's much of a material gain for the actual lower class people in Niger in getting Russia involved (unlike in the 60's-80's). It's just the top brass, companies, and governments of the coup's leaders that will get a fat payout and continued guns n armour. What guns and armour does Russia even have to trade with at this point though? They're already at war.
What the fuck is going on? Is it too stupid to say that the top dogs in Niger are now deliberately inviting a war against the West? Is it that they thought war was already going to happen, so they're getting all the backing they can to try to scare the French from striking back?
Could this end in an absolute NATO 'peacekeeper' goatfuck?
My guess is that AFRICOM has moved most of it's assets to Europe (it's not like recruitment numbers have gone up since the Ukriane-Russia conflict, so something has to give somewhere and they aren't going to pull people from the Pacific or South America) and the local nativist elites have taken notice and are acting accordingly. We have never really known how many 'trainers' were in Africa, but my guess is that most have been reassigned to other areas. It just isn't as lucrative to compete with the Chinese for African resources anymore, we are trying to set up for an end game, not fight over resources.
It's like how Saudi Arabia is now pulling abit away from direct U.S. orbit, if they are doing so, imagine the lack of resources (bribes) that are being sent to African countries right now. Something is going on with U.S. hegemony. What it will lead to and where it all ends, idk, but this all strikes me as geo-political crisis overload outside of South America.
People in the Global South waving Russian flags as a fuck you to the West is just a thing. Westerners vastly underestimate how much the rest of the globe despises them. And now that the West is getting weaker and can no longer coast along, they're about to get a very rude awakening.
Could this end in an absolute NATO 'peacekeeper' goatfuck?
Well, what you said about Russia not having hardware 'cause they're at war goes almost double for the West - they're at war, they've given half their armies to Ukraine where they got blackholed. Not too much appetite and materiel for another peacekeeping stunt right now.
Niger coup leaders accuse France of plotting military intervention
Junta that seized power claims Paris is aiming to reinstate deposed president as regional tensions grow
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/31/niger-coup-leaders-accuse-france-plotting-military-intervention
My take on the flag waving is that it's a deterrence, basically saying to western intelligence agencies that if you or your paid cronies try to start shit, you won't be facing unarmed peasants but several thousand heavily armed Russian mercenaries with a support base you can't drone stirke, that's enough to prevent any western personnel from touching down in the country itself, even the psychopaths of the Special Activities Center don't want to get in a shootout with former spetsnaz
This is announcing an insurance policy against any potential western counter-coupers
All in all this is a net positive
''My take on the flag waving''
Tbh Russian flag waving by Africans is relatively better than Ukrainians waving Death in June or Buddhist flag/insignia
Richard Medhurst had a good video on this, I think China and Russia are just seen are better partners for Africa than the west.
Could this end in an absolute NATO 'peacekeeper' goatfuck?
I'm sure Thomas Friedman is absolutely salivating at the prospect
It sounds like Russia's been condemning the coup and calling for them to release the leaders.
