im no statistician, but im p sure that deviation is not due to random error
My hunch is, they’re prioritizing collection/analysis/reporting of new hiring information, while firing data gets backburnered. So it’s not until the audit way down the line that they go “oopsies, we over reported by 30%.”
They've been doing this for a while now, but they always overreport by too much and the corrections after the fact get more notice than usual.
Or when they reported that healthcare inflation is like negative 20% last year to keep the already gamed inflation numbers look lower than they were.
I noticed that as well, the initial numbers get a lot more coverage and this creates an illusion that the economy is doing great. And then they just do plain old gaslighting on top of that such as this gem https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/59percent-of-americans-think-the-us-is-in-a-recession-report-finds.html
Everyone did intentional overreporting of the numbers in the past, but this only became a real problem with the Biden admin, because they are going too crazy with it. If they overshot by like 250k, this wouldn't get any real headlines, it would just be a quiet correction.
I think it's that and the fact that they've kicked the can as far down the road as they can at this point. It's becoming impossible to pretend the economy is doing well now.
Really, it shouldn't be about "jobs" but "amount of waged work hours against avg rent, food, transport, healthcare"
