GrouchoMarxist [comrade/them,use name] to the_dunk_tank • 4 years agoFirst thing I thought of when I saw the new 538 "prediction"imagemessage-square34 fedilinkarrow-up1135
arrow-up1134imageFirst thing I thought of when I saw the new 538 "prediction"GrouchoMarxist [comrade/them,use name] to the_dunk_tank • 4 years agomessage-square34 Commentsfedilink
minus-squareSerLava [he/him]hexbear15·4 years agoOn the other hand, when someone says "60-40" they get fucking dragged when the 40 happens, like it's not an extremely likely outcome. link
minus-squarefurryanarchy [comrade/them,they/them]hexbear8·edit-24 years ago20% is not even a very unlikely outcome. It's about the same as the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting the same side both times. link
minus-squareVayeate [they/them]hexbear14·4 years agothat's actually still 50/50. you'd have to specify getting "heads" both times for it to be 25% link
On the other hand, when someone says "60-40" they get fucking dragged when the 40 happens, like it's not an extremely likely outcome.
20% is not even a very unlikely outcome. It's about the same as the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting the same side both times.
that's actually still 50/50. you'd have to specify getting "heads" both times for it to be 25%