It just seems way more likely to me that specifically UFO sightings can be explained by low probability weather phenomena or the government doing something experimental, then covering it up.

I'd recommend reading UFOs and Government by Michael Swords. There are UFO sightings that absolutely can not be explained away with "weather phenomena" or "experimental government projects."

I don't think you actually know anything about the documented history of UFO sightings. Is that correct?

but it’s infinitely higher than the odds of a planet within distance of earth being developed enough to support life

What do you mean by "within distance"? That phrase is carrying a lot of weight. It is guaranteed that life in parts of the universe started developing billions of years ahead of us. Given that, distances of thousands, maybe even millions of light years possible given our current understanding of physics (matter must move STL). But even then, there are FTL theories that have not been disproved. There are likely FTL theories yet to be theorized.

I mean the earth is massive itself and 2/3rds are covered by water so why do most crazy sightings seem to happen in rural America

They don't. Most sightings occur in aircrafts. Again, I do not think you know much about UFO sightings lol

Also, most people don't live on the ocean. It is unlikely people would look up from their ocean home and see a UFO, right?