India is a relatively young nation with rising nationalist sentiment and both India and Pakistan are going to get pretty fucked by climate change in the next 20-30 years.
Wrong on all 3. America's median age is 38 vs 28 for India, nationalist sentiment frankly is falling (Trump is a sort of dead cat bounce), and relatively, the US is going to do fine with climate change, as long as you don't live in Florida. It's going to be annoying for most Americans vs. constant famines for India.
I see America losing critical port cities to hurricanes and having no ability to re-build them due to failures of governance and capital flight. I see massive agricultural losses due to extreme weather events, drought, and fire disrupting food security as the Midwest changes radically. I see much of the west and California becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to overexploitation of water resources, fire, and deadly heat events.
It won't happen all at once, but America is going to keep getting hit until it's punch drunk and eventually collapses. Eventually there's going to come a year when a series of Hurricanes flatten a major east coast city or wipe out Houston. And no one, not the government or private capital, will have the ability or interest to rebuild. Every time there's an extreme climate event there will be more and more internal refugees, and there will never be action to reverse that trend as the government becomes more and more fractured, the states become more balkanized, the weather becomes more extreme, and infrastructure breaks down further and further.
There won't be any single event that does it, but the cumulative weight of massive, annual, and unstoppable disasters will eventually grind the country down to a series of impoverished city states surrounded by barren wasteland.
I see America losing critical port cities to hurricanes and having no ability to re-build them due to failures of governance and capital flight
Worst case scenario is that Capital does SOMETHING. Even in an anarcho-Capitalist dystopia, Exxon Mobil is not just going to give up on refining, Dow Chemical is not going to stop making plastics, every corporation on Earth is not going to just give up on the idea of America having ports.
I see massive agricultural losses due to extreme weather events, drought, and fire disrupting food security as the Midwest changes radically.
Unlikely. The Midwest agriculture belt is not going to be significantly effected under any scenario with warming <=3C. Rainfall is not going to decrease significantly, the Great Lakes are just fine, and frankly, warmer temps might actually expand the growing area for a lot of staple crops in the American Midwest. China has committed to net zero by 2060, so we're pretty much guaranteed to have less than 3C of warming. All of the 2-3C warming scenarios are neutral-to-great for the American Midwest and bad for the Indian subcontinent.
I see much of the west and California becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to overexploitation of water resources, fire, and deadly heat events.
No one lives there anyway. We'll still be able to grow avocados/oranges/winter greens, so it's a moot point in the grand scheme of things (it's BAD, but not life-critical).
Every time there’s an extreme climate event there will be more and more internal refugees, and there will never be action to reverse that trend as the government becomes more and more fractured, the states become more balkanized, the weather becomes more extreme, and infrastructure breaks down further and further.
In the global South, absolutely. Things will get brutal. In the USA, no, not really. It won't be any worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. It probably won't even be that bad.
You have a much rosier view of the likely trajectory of climate change than I do. My assumption based on what we know, and the incredible rate at which we're being confronted with what we don't know, is unmitigated and unstoppable warming until the artic and the sea-floor both run out of greenhouse gasses somewhere around +8c.
Rising nationalism in India, China supporting Pakistan against a rival (they're already close), US supporting India because Neocons are going to start pushing aggression with China (which will happen whether Biden or Trump wins)
India v Pakistan war as as a proxy for US v China to kick off a new cold war .
Would be pretty insane to try a proxy war between nuclear powers.
India is a relatively young nation with rising nationalist sentiment and both India and Pakistan are going to get pretty fucked by climate change in the next 20-30 years.
America fits that bill.
Wrong on all 3. America's median age is 38 vs 28 for India, nationalist sentiment frankly is falling (Trump is a sort of dead cat bounce), and relatively, the US is going to do fine with climate change, as long as you don't live in Florida. It's going to be annoying for most Americans vs. constant famines for India.
I see America losing critical port cities to hurricanes and having no ability to re-build them due to failures of governance and capital flight. I see massive agricultural losses due to extreme weather events, drought, and fire disrupting food security as the Midwest changes radically. I see much of the west and California becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to overexploitation of water resources, fire, and deadly heat events.
It won't happen all at once, but America is going to keep getting hit until it's punch drunk and eventually collapses. Eventually there's going to come a year when a series of Hurricanes flatten a major east coast city or wipe out Houston. And no one, not the government or private capital, will have the ability or interest to rebuild. Every time there's an extreme climate event there will be more and more internal refugees, and there will never be action to reverse that trend as the government becomes more and more fractured, the states become more balkanized, the weather becomes more extreme, and infrastructure breaks down further and further.
There won't be any single event that does it, but the cumulative weight of massive, annual, and unstoppable disasters will eventually grind the country down to a series of impoverished city states surrounded by barren wasteland.
Worst case scenario is that Capital does SOMETHING. Even in an anarcho-Capitalist dystopia, Exxon Mobil is not just going to give up on refining, Dow Chemical is not going to stop making plastics, every corporation on Earth is not going to just give up on the idea of America having ports.
Unlikely. The Midwest agriculture belt is not going to be significantly effected under any scenario with warming <=3C. Rainfall is not going to decrease significantly, the Great Lakes are just fine, and frankly, warmer temps might actually expand the growing area for a lot of staple crops in the American Midwest. China has committed to net zero by 2060, so we're pretty much guaranteed to have less than 3C of warming. All of the 2-3C warming scenarios are neutral-to-great for the American Midwest and bad for the Indian subcontinent.
No one lives there anyway. We'll still be able to grow avocados/oranges/winter greens, so it's a moot point in the grand scheme of things (it's BAD, but not life-critical).
In the global South, absolutely. Things will get brutal. In the USA, no, not really. It won't be any worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. It probably won't even be that bad.
You have a much rosier view of the likely trajectory of climate change than I do. My assumption based on what we know, and the incredible rate at which we're being confronted with what we don't know, is unmitigated and unstoppable warming until the artic and the sea-floor both run out of greenhouse gasses somewhere around +8c.
Kick off?
Territorial conflict and contested claims. Same thing with Armenia and Azerbaijan right now.
Rising nationalism in India, China supporting Pakistan against a rival (they're already close), US supporting India because Neocons are going to start pushing aggression with China (which will happen whether Biden or Trump wins)
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Damn, please don't campaign for Trump on this website!