Saw this thread, and it really hit a chord with me, as these similar fears tend to constantly weigh on me (for various reasons- being trans, ethnic Chinese, commie, etc).
I think we all (leftists, but also just most minorities) know, shit is bad and will get worse, it's just a question of how bad it will get. People mention it offhand without usually going further into the details, and similarly in other spaces - non-leftist ones as well, for instance Asian diasporic and LGBT spaces in my experience, these fears come up, but ultimately we keep the bulk of our concerns to ourselves. What are our expectations here, for the west? Not just for the US, but the Anglosphere and Europe?
in the US there aren't enough white people to take over the country, I think it'll be neoliberal police state transphobia, not third reich transphobia.
*not trying to be flippant with this brief comment, just trying to be concise because I don't have the credibility to be verbose
The Nazis never won an actual majority even in manipulated elections. 75% is absolutely enough to go full third Reich.
Jews were less than 1% of the population in prewar Germany
They didn't only go after Jewish people though, they also attacked the various traveller peoples living in Germany, gay people, leftists and dozens of other relatively small groups.
I realize, but if you add up everyone they targeted it wasn't 1 in 4 people.
White people don't need to "take over" the country, they already dominate it. Besides, it's not like American fascists will start with 19th century race science. They will come to power promising to only brutalize the broadly defined "criminals", and gradually expand the definition once they've already captured the state
Maybe I'm wrong or deluding myself, but I think that a white-supremacist fascist movement—and I don’t know of I can imagine any other kind in America—would have a hard time going fully mask off and saying "okay we're doing white-supremacist fascism now" in a country where 25% of the population are not white and a lot of people are armed, and I think they would need to be mask-off fascist if they wanted to round up trans people on a national scale. *I’m not saying there won’t be patchwork fascist control at the state and county levels, pushing things as far as they can, like Florida but worse, with police increasingly turning a blind eye to transphobic attacks.
A lot of modern fascists are more concerned with culture than skin culture. If you're the right kind of Christian, who uses the right cultural signifiers and dresses the right way, skin color can usually be forgiven by these people, at least for the sake of forging a political alliance.
Maybe a lot, but I don’t know the actual fraction they make up among fascists, or how important their fraction is in terms of their potential power in the future. The proud boys followed Enrique Tarrio but they also dogwhistle about great replacement and are overwhelmingly white. My big assumption is that movements full of white supremacists will struggle to recruit POC, but maybe I’m wrong about that, or maybe Christian patriarchy will overtake white supremacism as the main driver of fascism in America. I don’t know. In a country this racist, I have a hard time imagining it.
Never underestimate how much gaslighting and insincere bullshit the fascists will use to gain power. Based on historical fascism, it will probably come with a faction of support that appears progressive and anti capitalist, maybe even socialist, which views the fascist party as a way to challenge capital. They will get long-knifed eventually, but until then their existence will frustrate our attempts to reveal the fundamentally reactionary and white supremacist nature of the fascist project