Inb4 the DNC starts campaigning with the slogan "It votes for blue behind the screen or else it gets the Trump again"
I wish I could get a peek into the "Trump getting a second term" timeline without actually entering it.
It's beyond belief how badly Biden is polling and how immensely stupid he and his team are. Along with Trump's previous crimes and criminality - Trump has 4 criminal indictments (and ~90 charges) along with 3 civil trials coming up. And Biden's plan is not to mention that at all because they are scared they could lose a handful of votes in the suburbs. Instead - Biden's going to rally voters by mentioning such stirring and rousing topics as kitchen-table issues and Bidenomics.
If Biden wanted to win a landslide victory he would cancel all student debt immediately, no means-tested watered down bullshit. The only conclusion to make from the democrats' actions is that they don't want to win and they never have. They only win by accident and do everything in their power to lose as fast as possible before the masses start asking why good things aren't happening when they're in power.
I think they could do a number of things to win, like what you said or legalizing weed, but they moneyed interests who run the DNC are opposed to those things, so it'll never happen
The Republican Party is practically a dead party now
what are you talking about, the 'deranged and extreme positions' have been their agenda for decades, and that they're actually enacting it is a sign of power not death throes.
I mean, it would not be a huge shock if Biden didn’t survive to the election
I give it 95% chance. Biden may have had a 4.5% lead in the popular vote in the last election but that's ~3% less than what the polls predicted and he only won by 44k votes across 3 states. Considering his further growing unpopularity, I expect another 2016, though it's not impossible Trump wins popular vote as well if president Walking Dead tries to put himself out there.
If Trump wins, I really hope he alienates Europe enough to pull out of their engagements with the usians. I doubt that'd kill the rabid pro-NATO fervour but at least they might resume buying gas from Russia.
I don't see how he could win, isn't his whole schtick is that he's a winner? He lost a race already, he's a fucking loser. It's possible that I don't understand Trump voters at all though and they'll vote for him regardless.
At this point, polling isn’t really relevant. There is no reality where Trump gets out-campaigned slowly over time. He’s the nominee unless a black swan event derails him. If that were to happen, it would change the dynamics so fundamentally that it would basically start the primary from scratch. It’d be similar to the Dem primary after Hillary lost, where there was a more or less open race because everyone thought they’d be running Hillary again as an incumbent.
Best of luck to the stragglers, though. Might as well be prepared in the event that Trump has to drop out of the race.
You gave me a posting idea - https://hexbear.net/post/375359
His entire political career has been nothing but black swan events though. Pretty much every controversy around him, stuff that would be the "career killer" for any other politician has just made his supporters dig in their heels.
I don't see him losing unless he drops dead, and even then he'd still probably have a bunch of republicans writing his name in on the ballot because they think it is all a big conspiracy or something.
I just like seeing these polls to watch the no-names, and it looks like we got some new ones.
Hurd's thing is being a former clandestine CIA officer
. Suarez's thing is going back and doing that 2015 strat of getting less racist against Hispanics, before Trump showed up and said "lol no."Of course for our classics, Burgum's thing is that a few weeks ago you could give him $1 and get a $20 gift card in exchange, 'cause he was trying to meet the donor threshold (seriously can't believe we missed out on this)
And Hutchinson, of course, is the Civility candidate 🥰Polling only works correctly if people are honest. I think a lot of republicans are (very) uncomfortable saying they support Trump so they lie to pollsters and pick somebody else from the GOP clown car. In that poll Ramaswamy is at 7.2%. I simply can't believe that's accurate. If he breaches 10% maybe Trump will say "Ramas-whaty? He's not... you know... like us." Trump touches the white skin of his cheek. "He's not even Christian. He's an Indian religion from India," and Ramaswamy's numbers will fall by about half in a couple weeks.
Particularly with Pence, I imagine he's mostly getting evangelicals who will inevitably vote for Trump.
I was very surprised (and then entirely unsurprised) by the 30% number - More than half of US adults, 30% of evangelicals believe Jesus isn't God: study.
By rejecting Jesus as god - it makes it simple for evangelicals to ignore what Jesus said and believed. He said "This is my command. Love each other as I have loved you." In my opinion "evangelical" in the US is basically life-style branding.
Yeah but right-wing business owners don't want to get bogged down in annoying Jesus stuff like his love command. They're too busy hating minority groups of all kinds, discriminating against them, and then saying "As a Christian I can't do business with
[insert minority group name here]. It goes against my religious beliefs." The GOP justices on the Supreme Court are far more important to them than Jesus.I'm just surprised that 30% of evangelicals are committing extremely old school the church will lynch you heresies.
Everything old is eventually new again. For example - 100 years from now their spawn could be lynching people - Christians and non-Christians - for not accepting Jesus as god.
Tbf, traditionally, the church wasn't going around doing polls or quizzes about what the congregation believed. For most of history, church services were conducted in Latin to illiterate audiences, while the theological debates they were executing people over were often about highly nuanced and esoteric topics. For the average lay person, it wasn't expected that they understand everything, so long as they were willing to defer to whatever the church told them if they said something wrong. Some would say that this shows the church has always cared more about obedience and authority than teaching about the faith (I'm Some
)That said, "Jesus is God" is like, it's basically right there in the name "Christianity."
Considering that polls skew older I could see that semi-accurately representing the never-Trumpers.
I genuinely do not understand Republicans. Why cling to a guy who is a proven loser? You know Biden is going to be the nominee. You know Trump lost to Biden. Why repeat the thing?
So does meatball Ron. Or Nikki Haley. Although tbh, she is more frustrating than infuriating.
nah, no one else comes close. it hasn't been THAT long since liberals were proclaiming Desantis as the reasonable alternative to Trump - much to the horror of queer people everywhere.
Half the Republican base believes that the election was stolen and that he should still be the president right now. It’s really not surprising.
Trump isn't actually a politician. He's a cult leader with a political operation. And the religion is Trumpism.
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If you feel like Biden's term has sucked, Trump might have better odds this time
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Biden's margin wasn't that big to start with
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There's a lot of people who are big into Trump and nominating someone else could alienate them.
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Who else are they gonna pick?
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Wow, thanks mate, I had no idea politicians were idealised rock-paper-scissors entities.
Or, and I'm not saying usian right-liberals know this, there's a difference. Trump had just let hundreds of thousands die and Biden had the nostalgia of 4 years prior, and he still barely won. Now the situation is reversed. Biden's got a large popularity deficit and I doubt rotting corpse energy will change that tide well.
The Ron voters splitting between Trump and checks notes Ramaswamy? Never heard of him, assume he is the "respectable" GOP entrant this time around.
