you're assuming a coherent entity capable of making these choices. in fact, it will be many small groups making their own calls because no one can tell what the central authority even wants. while they still retain control, they'll be cautious about showing weakness to the outside world. once control starts slipping (which will likely happen before the start any of conflict), too many factions will be vying for power within and around the state. I'm not saying it's impossible that bombs go off. I'm saying that it's unlikely to be a tactical decision made for the furtherance of a war.