back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now
Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.
I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.
The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).
Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.
Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Genocide Joe authorized
to use anti personel land mines.
Ironically Russia was the only country to vote no in 2023 on the U.S. General Assembly adoption of the (1997) Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production, and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction (the "Ottawa Convention"). Ukraine voted yes, and the U.S. abstained.
Also, neither the U.S. nor Russia are direct parties to the Ottawa Convention, but Ukraine is. In 2016, as a response to Russia annexing Crimea, Ukraine implied that if anti-personnel land mines were used in Crimea or Donbass that it was totally Russia doing it and not Urkaine, and/or (gotta love passive legalese shit all over the place—whatever) admitted it might commit war crimes by violating the convention ("The application and implementation by Ukraine of the obligations under the above Convention, as applied to the aforementioned occupied and uncontrolled territory of Ukraine, is limited and is not guaranteed."). Then in 2018 it claimed it had been "finding" such mines but it was all on Russia ("Shortly after the commencement of the military confrontation Ukraine started to discover on the liberated territories the mined areas containing anti-personnel mines, originated from the State, which is non State party to the Ottawa Convention. Ukraine has been regularly reflecting such facts in its annual declarations since 2015.").
TeCHniCaLLy (
), I guess Genocide Joe isn't telegraphing his commission of war crimes here, because the U.S. rarely agrees to legally "take options off the table". But this is undeniably the U.S. openly encouraging Ukraine to commit (more) war crimes, because Ukraine is a party.
This is a war crime, right?
See my comment.
Anything to cement generations of hate.
These mines will be maiming and killing for fifty years or more.
Antipersonnel mines won't last nearly that long in agricultural land
What’s the difference between them and UXO in Laos and Cambodia which have lasted decades in farmland? Is it just mines vs bombs?
Different farming approaches mean it's harder to run a modified remote control tractor through a field of ap mines in Cambodia and Laos, plus the technology to do that hasn't been as accessible as it is today.
UXO is a tougher challenge because the explosive force takes out a lot of the easier mine clearance options. UXO from 100 years ago is still all over Europe.
So landmines are not as bad to remove compared to other ordinance due to more mine-removing tech?
Yea for antipersonnel landmines, not antitank mines, and it's easier to demine big flat fields of wheat than to demine smaller terraced and/or flooded rice fields
Laos I think has cluster bombs everywhere, so it's impossible to have any record of where they are and also there's way more of them.
As for agricultural land I guess they would get found one way or another before/while plowing.
Well that’s my point, they’re there forever, even with a heavy agricultural percentage, and the person I was replying to said they wouldn’t last longer, so what’s the difference?
Yeah, they still occasionally find unexploded rounds from WWII in Europe so this could be a problem for like 100 years
just looked this up on another thread, Ukraine has been using them in violation of their signing the 1997 ban treaty . I don't know much about mine dispersal but the US-made ones might not be compatible with Ukraine's soviet minelaying tech, which could make them less efficient to disperse and pollute a bit less land. hopefully