I wonder if we aren't going to see a drastic death toll from this, if it simply doesn't go away from now on. The coronavirus has a 5 to 10% mortality rate, even more so when it comes to boomers/sick/fat people. And when it doesn't kill you, it leaves permanent scars on your brain (yes, even cognitive functions are affected). Unless they find a vaccine relatively quickly, we're boned.
Mortality rate is more like 0.3-0.7% (CFR) by most recent measures. We have gotten a lot better at treating it, mostly because our paradigm of the use of early intubation in worsening acute respiratory failure doesn't really apply to covid. In fact, we learned that you need to avoid intubation at all costs if possible - even if that means permitting oxygen saturations well into the low 80s. We also now know the role of corticosteroids, convalescent plasma, and which inflammatory markers to trend.
Don't get me wrong, it's still a serious deal, but much less scary than earlier this year where CFR was around 1.4% and we didn't quite understand transmission well.
I do wish we had more guidance on managing outpatients though. Right now it's pretty much "stay at home and if you feel worse go to the hospital" (although I'll sometimes throw corticosteroids and antibiotics at my chronic lung disease patients).
We will definitely get through this. Don't worry. Expect a vaccine in spring or early summer, with roll out throughout the rest of the year. Things will start to return to normal after that but masks will be the last thing to go because they are so damn easy to implement (and they are effective).
So save your doomerism for...uhhh...(gestures widely) pretty much everything else about this capitalist hellhole.
You're probably right, but this sounds like the best case scenario, where people get the medical help they need. What happens when hospitals can't answer the needs of an ever-growing infected population ? Or even worse, that a poor country with a bad medical system can't control the pandemic ?
And even if it somehow happens like you predict it, it's still millions upon millions of lives lost if the epidemy becomes seasonal. But thank you for your post regardless, I indeed didn't know about the change in the mortality rate.
I wonder if we aren't going to see a drastic death toll from this, if it simply doesn't go away from now on. The coronavirus has a 5 to 10% mortality rate, even more so when it comes to boomers/sick/fat people. And when it doesn't kill you, it leaves permanent scars on your brain (yes, even cognitive functions are affected). Unless they find a vaccine relatively quickly, we're boned.
Mortality rate is more like 0.3-0.7% (CFR) by most recent measures. We have gotten a lot better at treating it, mostly because our paradigm of the use of early intubation in worsening acute respiratory failure doesn't really apply to covid. In fact, we learned that you need to avoid intubation at all costs if possible - even if that means permitting oxygen saturations well into the low 80s. We also now know the role of corticosteroids, convalescent plasma, and which inflammatory markers to trend.
Don't get me wrong, it's still a serious deal, but much less scary than earlier this year where CFR was around 1.4% and we didn't quite understand transmission well.
I do wish we had more guidance on managing outpatients though. Right now it's pretty much "stay at home and if you feel worse go to the hospital" (although I'll sometimes throw corticosteroids and antibiotics at my chronic lung disease patients).
We will definitely get through this. Don't worry. Expect a vaccine in spring or early summer, with roll out throughout the rest of the year. Things will start to return to normal after that but masks will be the last thing to go because they are so damn easy to implement (and they are effective).
So save your doomerism for...uhhh...(gestures widely) pretty much everything else about this capitalist hellhole.
You're probably right, but this sounds like the best case scenario, where people get the medical help they need. What happens when hospitals can't answer the needs of an ever-growing infected population ? Or even worse, that a poor country with a bad medical system can't control the pandemic ?
And even if it somehow happens like you predict it, it's still millions upon millions of lives lost if the epidemy becomes seasonal. But thank you for your post regardless, I indeed didn't know about the change in the mortality rate.
Quality post, thank you.