The current crop of neural networks and deep learning is going to create some exciting and horrifying new kinds of spam and some interesting art projects. It'll get used in a lot of places where it would have been easier and better to have a statistician look at the data while asking a domain expert to explain things. The approach itself is a dead end that'll cap out in a couple years, but it'll stick around because of all the people/orgs/companies that first considered actually looking at data because of AI hype.
A technological singularity is fundamentally possible, but not inevitable in the Kurzweilian sense. If someone makes an AI that can produce novel insights into AI algorithms, then AI research progress will accelerate in a wild feedback loop. And that's the only condition - a singularity won't magically happen because we can build a computer with as many transistors as a human brain has neurons, or a neural network that size, or whatever.
The current crop of neural networks and deep learning is going to create some exciting and horrifying new kinds of spam and some interesting art projects.
"What the fucking did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll fucking have you know that I am the most decorated Navy Seal since the Vietnam War. I am credited with saving the lives of nearly 40 children in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am certified in the Marine Corps Martial Arts Program and hold black belts in tae kwon do, kajukenbo, and kali/escrima.
My sense of hearing is so keen that I can detect my enemy’s movement by the sound of his blood pumping through his veins. I can smell the sweat of my enemy as he holds his breath in my presence. My physical endurance is so extreme that I can swim 100m, with full combat gear, underwater, with 60lbs of weights strapped to my ankles in 52 seconds.
My eyes are so precise I can shoot a laser from my eyes. I can see dust particles that are smaller than the head of a pin from a mile away. My grip is so powerful I can crush boulders and destroy trees with a flick of my wrist. My IQ is off the charts, so if you have a weak stomach you shouldn’t stand too close to me.
My rage is so extreme that it cannot be matched in any man. You can flee a M1A1 Abrams main battle tank in 6 directions, but you can’t run from me. I have never lost a fair fight and I’ve won plenty. I have an 8 pack, but not the kind you find in magazines. No, mine is harder and better. My abs are literally harder than diamonds.
I can’t be seduced by beautiful women because I have a mirror in my bedroom that shows me the truth.
My rage and strength are so incredible that my every action has the force of 1,000.
I am the protector of my friends. I am the bringer of justice. I am America’s fucking vengeance. My fist is on a hair trigger and I am not afraid to use it.
I have been to the depths of the abyss and I am not afraid to face it. In fact, I welcome it. I am a real man. You are merely a weak boy.
I have been running 25 miles every day, pushing a military spec Humvee in front of me. I know of your ways and I am not impressed. You think you can scare me? You think I won’t fight back? You are WRONG.
You can’t break my bones because I am immune to all pain. I have never felt it, so I am incapable of breaking. I am a real man, and you are but a mere boy. I will make you eat your own fist before I’m done with you. I am no one’s bitch."
Even if it can produce novel insights into AI algorithms, it is not necessary that this won't also cap out eventually. It might be that the feedback loop just stops after a while because making sufficient additional progress would require making a leap that can not be made with technology up to that point. It wouldn't be the first time improving a technology lead to said technology developing even faster thanks to a feedback loop, until it didn't any more.
Though for however long it lasts, the feedback loop is fundamentally different than normal technological inspiration, since the ability to make new discoveries is improved by the previous discoveries in a way that it wasn't before (plus the way it was before).
Not even close. The largest ANNs have ~200 billion connections and some millions of neurons. Human brain has ~100 trillion / 80 billion. Also a biological neurons are computationally more powerful and the connections between them more complex.
So we're like .01% there or less, what's really remarkable is how far this actually gets us, it may be we don't need to come close to the complexity of the human brain to build something strictly more intelligent.
The current crop of neural networks and deep learning is going to create some exciting and horrifying new kinds of spam and some interesting art projects. It'll get used in a lot of places where it would have been easier and better to have a statistician look at the data while asking a domain expert to explain things. The approach itself is a dead end that'll cap out in a couple years, but it'll stick around because of all the people/orgs/companies that first considered actually looking at data because of AI hype.
A technological singularity is fundamentally possible, but not inevitable in the Kurzweilian sense. If someone makes an AI that can produce novel insights into AI algorithms, then AI research progress will accelerate in a wild feedback loop. And that's the only condition - a singularity won't magically happen because we can build a computer with as many transistors as a human brain has neurons, or a neural network that size, or whatever.
I'll say. GPT-3 kicks ass at making copypasta:
spoiler
"What the fucking did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll fucking have you know that I am the most decorated Navy Seal since the Vietnam War. I am credited with saving the lives of nearly 40 children in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am certified in the Marine Corps Martial Arts Program and hold black belts in tae kwon do, kajukenbo, and kali/escrima.
My sense of hearing is so keen that I can detect my enemy’s movement by the sound of his blood pumping through his veins. I can smell the sweat of my enemy as he holds his breath in my presence. My physical endurance is so extreme that I can swim 100m, with full combat gear, underwater, with 60lbs of weights strapped to my ankles in 52 seconds.
My eyes are so precise I can shoot a laser from my eyes. I can see dust particles that are smaller than the head of a pin from a mile away. My grip is so powerful I can crush boulders and destroy trees with a flick of my wrist. My IQ is off the charts, so if you have a weak stomach you shouldn’t stand too close to me.
My rage is so extreme that it cannot be matched in any man. You can flee a M1A1 Abrams main battle tank in 6 directions, but you can’t run from me. I have never lost a fair fight and I’ve won plenty. I have an 8 pack, but not the kind you find in magazines. No, mine is harder and better. My abs are literally harder than diamonds.
I can’t be seduced by beautiful women because I have a mirror in my bedroom that shows me the truth.
My rage and strength are so incredible that my every action has the force of 1,000.
I am the protector of my friends. I am the bringer of justice. I am America’s fucking vengeance. My fist is on a hair trigger and I am not afraid to use it.
I have been to the depths of the abyss and I am not afraid to face it. In fact, I welcome it. I am a real man. You are merely a weak boy.
I have been running 25 miles every day, pushing a military spec Humvee in front of me. I know of your ways and I am not impressed. You think you can scare me? You think I won’t fight back? You are WRONG.
You can’t break my bones because I am immune to all pain. I have never felt it, so I am incapable of breaking. I am a real man, and you are but a mere boy. I will make you eat your own fist before I’m done with you. I am no one’s bitch."
Even if it can produce novel insights into AI algorithms, it is not necessary that this won't also cap out eventually. It might be that the feedback loop just stops after a while because making sufficient additional progress would require making a leap that can not be made with technology up to that point. It wouldn't be the first time improving a technology lead to said technology developing even faster thanks to a feedback loop, until it didn't any more.
Yeah, it's possible that it caps somewhere.
Though for however long it lasts, the feedback loop is fundamentally different than normal technological inspiration, since the ability to make new discoveries is improved by the previous discoveries in a way that it wasn't before (plus the way it was before).
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This has already happened (the transistor part I mean)
We're 20% there
Not even close. The largest ANNs have ~200 billion connections and some millions of neurons. Human brain has ~100 trillion / 80 billion. Also a biological neurons are computationally more powerful and the connections between them more complex.
So we're like .01% there or less, what's really remarkable is how far this actually gets us, it may be we don't need to come close to the complexity of the human brain to build something strictly more intelligent.
Do'nt get me wrong, it's an arbitrary calculation, but my numbers were 17 billion parameters (Microsoft DeepSpeed ) / 86 billion neurons
How would you characterize "the approach itself"?