Look, look, things either happen, or they don't, so that's 50/50 on whatever, but then you think, what if multiple things happen in a row? That's right, you gotta multiply that so if a thing happens after another thing, it's actually a 25% chance cause you got 50/50 then a 50/50. What if it's three things happening? Oh boy then you've really gotta crunch those numbers cause it's 50/50 of a 50/50 of a 50/50!