Except these are also all numbers you've basically pulled straight out of your asshole, Nate.
Look, look, things either happen, or they don't, so that's 50/50 on whatever, but then you think, what if multiple things happen in a row? That's right, you gotta multiply that so if a thing happens after another thing, it's actually a 25% chance cause you got 50/50 then a 50/50. What if it's three things happening? Oh boy then you've really gotta crunch those numbers cause it's 50/50 of a 50/50 of a 50/50!
I thought the whole point of having a mathematical model was to eliminate the need for this kind of inane shit
It's just a composite of state level predictions which are based on polls (and other stuff), though
the reason why biden has such high chances on fivethirtyeight is cause most of the maps show biden winning florida and/or fucking Texas, which is an absolute fever dream
trump has a real chance of winning
Every fucking election the GOP operatives come out and say "We're worried we're going to lose {STATE_THEY_KNOW_THEY_WONT_LOSE}" and the Dems get enormous (for them) boners that they are immediately ashamed by. Pushing through their embarrassment, they say "Well, if our honorable GOP colleagues have highly accurate polling data that shows we have a chance there, we better start spending money and time on that state! It is good and just that they would tell us their deepest worries. And though we feel bad for doing so, we will use this data to our advantage."
And then the Democrats do something even fucking stupider like try to turn Amarillo blue by running some freak who went to Yale but has an uncle in the district because that's what their consultants said would play best. And to celebrate they write a bunch of checks to other consultants who are qualified because they are the children or otherwise relations of Dem party elites.
In the meantime, the GOP works on suppressing the vote anywhere they think they might lose and doing real effective push polling.
Apparently youth vote in texas is through the roof.
I still think it's a stupid democrat fever dream that ultimately just hurts their chances of winning, but this election is so fucking strange.
texas only goes blue in a biden landslide. 2024 is a different story though.
I was noticing that. I took all the possible maps and crossed out the ones where either Texas or Florida were blue, and went: "oh shit..."
I mean, yeah, I know Texas is supposed to be going blue because of metro area growth, and Florida is supposed to be going blue because of felony enfranchisement, but I don't believe either for a second.
You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me.
Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way, at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Steve2 and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 10/520 chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak and I’m not normal! So you got a 1.5%, AT BEST, at beat me.
Then you add Will2Live to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way, at Sacrifice, you got a 49/58 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66/ chance of winning, because Steve2 KNOWS he can’t beat me and he’s not even gonna try!
So Steve2, you take your 49 1/3 chance, minus my 66/65% chance and you got an 0% chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 1,00,00% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 21212 per cents, I got 142221 2222/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Steve, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
Trump has a 50/50 chance of winning. Either it happens or it doesn't. :thonk:
This dude is a millionaire because he's supposedly an election stats genius lol
I like how some other guy wrote a book about how he uses some the alternative baseball stats Nate Silver came up with to make big enough returns on sports betting that he doesn't have to work.
Silver could be doing that, but instead he is fulfilling his lifelong dream of being a living lanyard.
nononono he's right. Trump will either win or lose, then there is a half chance Trump's numbers will improve because they either can or can't improve, then there is a half chance Nate Silver is an idiot because he either is or he isn't, so .5^3 is .125 or 1/8 chance. Can I run 538 now?
If I jump off a building I could either plumet into the pavement or sprout wings and fly to safety, those are the only two possible outcomes so logically there's a 50-50 chance of either happening.
