Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you'd get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!

Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It's a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.

The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.

  • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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    4 years ago

    The thing is his odds are wrong. Trump is most likely going to win.

      • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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        4 years ago

        It might take the Supreme Court handing it to him, but he will probably win.

        • Katieushka [they/them,she/her]
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          4 years ago

          oh yeah, that for sure, but libs are still worried about what the elctorial college will look like

          • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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            4 years ago

            The makeup of the electoral college will be what the Supreme Court decides on. Trump will most likely end up with 270 in one way or another.

            • Katieushka [they/them,she/her]
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              4 years ago

              ok, how do i tell you this dude, this is not what he is predicting? you cant put numbers on those things. stop trying to look smart like that, it's like considering "what if i get up and punch you" in a game of chess. i know you are right but this is not what any of us is talking about

              • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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                4 years ago

                He's predicting who will win what states based on the official vote count in each. The official vote count in some state will likely be in dispute leaving the SC to make a decision that ultimately determines it. We will never know the actual vote count, so it doesn't matter. In your own words, "you can't put numbers on those things".

                If he were around to predict Gore winning in 2000, would you say he got it right only for it to be overruled by the Supreme Court? No, because we don't know who won Florida.

                • Katieushka [they/them,she/her]
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                  4 years ago

                  We will never know the actual vote count

                  mh?

                  also yes i would say he got it right. it's not up to him to know what will happen after people cast their votes. his job ends there. he doesnt make any prediction on the matter of policy, or eventual behaviour of a singular politician. you ask him "how will the people vote", he gives you an answer, then if tomfoolery happens, it's not his job to know.

                  • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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                    4 years ago

                    mh?

                    Not sure your confusion here, do you know the exact number of people who went into the voting booth in Florida in 2000 with the intent to vote for Gore? No one does.

                      • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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                        4 years ago

                        But that's exactly what's going to happen. There will be some dispute about a few thousand votes in Pennsylvania or some shit, a decision will be made to settle that dispute, and Trump will win it. We'll never know how many votes each person actually got. A prediction of some "actual vote count" is completely useless and unverifiable.

        • CanYouFeelItMrKrabs [any, he/him]
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          4 years ago

          Then his odds aren't wrong, that isn't what the model is predicting votes. It's predicting who gets more votes in actuality. Predicting what the recorded votes will be is a separate prediction and difficult because it's hard to know exactly what will happen

          • eduardog3000 [he/him]
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            4 years ago

            It’s predicting who gets more votes in actuality.

            Then it would be predicting something that's literally impossible to verify. There is no "in actuality" without knowing the intents and situations of every single eligible voter in the state.

            It's a completely useless prediction to make.

            Who got more votes "in actuality" in Florida in 2000? Does "in actuality" take into account the people who accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan? How many people actually did that?

            • CanYouFeelItMrKrabs [any, he/him]
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              4 years ago

              There is no “in actuality” without knowing the intents and situations of every single eligible voter in the state.

              Polling is an attempt to figure this out. Polls have a margin of error but are generally accurate.

              Who got more votes “in actuality” in Florida in 2000?

              If votes aren't counted properly it's impossible to know. All we can do is estimate the actual count, and know the official count that gets reported.

    • TossedAccount [he/him]
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      4 years ago

      The 538 probability clearly doesn't factor in the SCOTUS tilting the scales in Trump's favor. A much more useful statistic might be an estimated probability of Biden winning in such an enormous landslide that the SCOTUS couldn't possibly ratfuck the election. Such a probability could give us an approximation of the complement of the true probability of a Trump victory.

    • PeterTheAverage [he/him]
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      4 years ago

      Nah I don't agree with the 10% in his model, but in no way is Trump favored. He's likely going to lose by a decent margin too. I think people here underestimate how much Trump is hated by most people.

    • domhnall [he/him]
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      4 years ago

      They’re going to blame he left either way, so WEEEEEEEEEE