https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-one-saw-coming-kevin-133000274.html
“No one saw this coming,” entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary said in a recent interview with Larry Kudlow of Fox Business. And O’Leary believes the issue will manifest itself in the regional banking sector. “These banks are going to fail,” he said, “because up to 40% of their portfolios … are in commercial real estate.”
Sowing: "I deserve profits because investments are risky"
Reaping: "well fuck, what the fuck, this fucking sucks"
In the town I live in now, there's a glut of empty commercial real estate that's been a problem BEFORE covid. Do you think this would be enough to convince people to lower commercial rent? Nope, they increased rent and just let the buildings stand empty 🙄 Has this convinced people to stop building more commercial real estate? Nope, they even filled a patch of local wetland (maybe a few acres that also had the railroad running through it, it's been fucked for a while after residential filled in a lot of it anyway).
It feels like the current generation of the local gentry learned from their petite bourgeois dads that the way to make it and keep things stable is to invest in commercial real estate and so they decided to do that absent any evidence or forethought.
If you just leave it standing empty, you can write the losses off and avoid paying taxes on all the other money you're stealing from workers.
And they always write off losses as unpaid rent instead of maintenance costs
market is unpredictable oh noes who woulda thunk.
these people claim to love taking risk but the moment they lose anything they start whining.
And blame others for it as well. Like wow, people don't like working in offices? Its all the fault of the workers that dont want to go back? Well it sounds like you've just got a demand problem bucko.
And what's that? Some people who haven't got their start yet WANT to work for you in the office? Better tell them no because we are so infuriatingly picky for whatever reason. Come on, there's gotta be one guy who has years of experience willing to work for less than what he's worth for the privilege of working for us. Right?
Also isn't O'Leary one of those guys that got lucky once and has been undeperforming the rest of the market for the past 30 years? Idk if he's a good source for any sort of analysis lol
The secret is no one can do better than the market but you've basically got him down
He sold a shitty edutainment software company to Hasbro or something and he's been cruising ever since. Sometimes literally like when he murdered someone by cruising his boat over theirs.
“No one saw this coming,”
No one over the age of 45 you mean. The rest of us who grew up with computers realized a long time ago that the world was headed this direction. Not our fault you put blinders over your eyes.
it occurs to me how dishonest the phrase "no one saw this coming" is when deployed by capitalists. you know what? a whole shitload of people see every consequence of US political economy coming. alienation, class tension-political violence, environmental degradation, public health crises, market concentration/monopoly, and in this case: economic instability. instability is the defining feature of the capitalist mode of production.
millions of us are going about our lives witnessing the emergence of thousands of problems. under the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie, workers, the great masses of us, lack the institutional power to prevent them short of organized work stoppages to get the attention and force the hand of those who do have the power, but literally cannot be bothered to do anything but protect the profits of the already wealthy.
so. no kevin. you didn't see this coming. because you are a fucking idiot operating with only the most narrow ideological frame in the history of human civilization. no one should consult you for anything more complex than making toast, you fucking fetus.
wish the government gave me a billion taxpayer dollars every time i made a bad gamble
shit, i'd settle for an unbent nickel at this point
nobody wants to subsidize my terrible decisions at all and it's complete bullshit!
God, imagine the incredibly cheap office space you'll be able to rent out if it really does collapse. Yes I think I will have a 2000 square foot former insurance brokerage to use as an art studio for 200 dollars a month split between 2 buddies
Living spaces as well, sometimes, but many buildings won't work for that.
For 200 a month, I will find a way to make that a living space if it means I have to shit in a bucket
With the money you save in rent you could buy a pretty sweet composting toilet
I wonder how many times over we could house every person without a home in idle commercial real estate?
: "Whoa whoa whoa.....WHOA! Di....did you just suggest living on your own SHOULD be something that's NOT a luxury for the rich!?!? Why do you hate freedom? You're gonna live in the suburb forever, and YOU'RE GONNA LIKE IT!"
Office spaces are already getting converted into living spaces and other commodities. The banks will just be gobbled up by bigger banks, as is tradition...
It's almost as if having a massive chunk of your 'economy' be built around FIRE makes it super unstable and liable to collapse any time structural pressures are applied to it
My only regret is having to deal with bosses desperately trying to get people back into the office to try and stave off the inevitable collapse of commercial real estate and that these buildings by and large can't be converted into cheap housing when it does become worth nothing.
