-
The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
-
Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
-
Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.
Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?
Israel doesn't have the wherewithal to maintain a ground invasion in the face of massive casualties, which is exactly what they would face. Would they kill more Palestinians than IDF soldiers would die? Yes. But winning isn't about getting the best KD. It's about being able - militarily, economically, and politically - to carry out your operation until your objectives are achieved. They lost in 2006, and that's what created the status quo blockade.