i can't imagine our reliance on overseas/international manufacturing and position as a big oil user wouldn't come to a screeching halt and wreak havoc on our logistical systems for distributing food and material until such time as we could decarbonize transportation, at the very least. any transition (hard or soft) is going to be so intensely political too... "where" (aka who) gets services vs doesn't, i honestly can't wrap my head around it.
This is a bit of an outdated talking point. The US is a net oil exporter.
In fact, it was the birthplace of the oil indistry. Initial American involvement in the Middle East was to secure cheap oil for rebuilding Europe after WWII. Then fighting communism took over. There was a relatively breif period of import dependence as consumption surged and old fields in the US died down, then fracking, oil shales, and offshore drilling allowed the revival of the domestic oil industry.
The biggest concern if American imperialism collapsed would be the effects on the currency. Currently, the use of the Dollar as an international reserve and exchange currency increases it's value, letting America import cheaper at the cost of making exports less viable. See Lebanon's economy for an example of how this works. It does boost living standards and consumption, but undermines the long term development of domestic industry. Does that matter in a service based economy like the US? It's hard to say. You can't outsource Chipotle guac scooping as easily as you can car door manufacturing. Another major difference between the US and Lebanon is how this inflated value is maintained. In Lebanon, the government just ate the cost directly, buying and selling dollars at a loss. In the US, it's indirect. Diplomacy, international confidence, and occasional Imperialism keep the dollar afloat. These can wind down more easily, allowing a gradual transition.
Still, it's easy to overstate the impact of these. There are sections of American capital advocating for currency devaluation. America was and could again be a vibrant, Manufacturing based economy. It has significant quantities of most resources. It has high amounts of technology and skilled labour that allow it to complete with other nations even on a leveled playing field.
Capitalism used Imperialism to expand its base, but the form of it doesn't matter all that much. America has traditionally favoured free trade between nations over carving out 3rd world fiefdoms because it's advantageously positioned. The US could afford to buy what it needs at fair prices.
I don't imagine the "net oil exporter" status will change in the collapse of US hegemony. rather, it will intensify, leaving drastically less for domestic consumption, since it will be more valuable to export.
I mean, the US can increase production further. Most energy uses are getting more efficient. That's been investment in renewable energy. All of which can offset any exports. Not including the possibility of export tariffs or the lower prices of other sources.
Initial American involvement in the Middle East was to secure cheap oil for rebuilding Europe after WWII.
My understanding is that early post-war involvement in the Middle East was partly driven by this, and partly driven by the anticipated importance of oil for the next big war.
i can't imagine our reliance on overseas/international manufacturing and position as a big oil user wouldn't come to a screeching halt and wreak havoc on our logistical systems for distributing food and material until such time as we could decarbonize transportation, at the very least. any transition (hard or soft) is going to be so intensely political too... "where" (aka who) gets services vs doesn't, i honestly can't wrap my head around it.
This is a bit of an outdated talking point. The US is a net oil exporter.
In fact, it was the birthplace of the oil indistry. Initial American involvement in the Middle East was to secure cheap oil for rebuilding Europe after WWII. Then fighting communism took over. There was a relatively breif period of import dependence as consumption surged and old fields in the US died down, then fracking, oil shales, and offshore drilling allowed the revival of the domestic oil industry.
The biggest concern if American imperialism collapsed would be the effects on the currency. Currently, the use of the Dollar as an international reserve and exchange currency increases it's value, letting America import cheaper at the cost of making exports less viable. See Lebanon's economy for an example of how this works. It does boost living standards and consumption, but undermines the long term development of domestic industry. Does that matter in a service based economy like the US? It's hard to say. You can't outsource Chipotle guac scooping as easily as you can car door manufacturing. Another major difference between the US and Lebanon is how this inflated value is maintained. In Lebanon, the government just ate the cost directly, buying and selling dollars at a loss. In the US, it's indirect. Diplomacy, international confidence, and occasional Imperialism keep the dollar afloat. These can wind down more easily, allowing a gradual transition.
Still, it's easy to overstate the impact of these. There are sections of American capital advocating for currency devaluation. America was and could again be a vibrant, Manufacturing based economy. It has significant quantities of most resources. It has high amounts of technology and skilled labour that allow it to complete with other nations even on a leveled playing field.
Capitalism used Imperialism to expand its base, but the form of it doesn't matter all that much. America has traditionally favoured free trade between nations over carving out 3rd world fiefdoms because it's advantageously positioned. The US could afford to buy what it needs at fair prices.
I don't imagine the "net oil exporter" status will change in the collapse of US hegemony. rather, it will intensify, leaving drastically less for domestic consumption, since it will be more valuable to export.
I mean, the US can increase production further. Most energy uses are getting more efficient. That's been investment in renewable energy. All of which can offset any exports. Not including the possibility of export tariffs or the lower prices of other sources.
My understanding is that early post-war involvement in the Middle East was partly driven by this, and partly driven by the anticipated importance of oil for the next big war.