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The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
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Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
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Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.
Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?
Gaza is not only dense but well-defended. They have networks of tunnels dug under the city and extending out of Gaza. Fighters can disappear an IOF soldier in 10 seconds in their tunnels and you'll never see him again. The last time they tried to enter, in 2014, one IOF soldier came out of it describing the experience like so: It was hell. Everything you touched could explode against you. Everyone you see could pull a weapon and shoot you as soon as you turn your head. And there's lots of people. You move step by step, as if in the dark, and just hope you make it out alive.
Honestly a land invasion of Gaza might be their nail in the coffin. This is where they do not have superiority. They can bomb Gaza all they want, but they can't invade it and succeed. Both times they've tried it was a colossal defeat for them.
Compound that with the fact that the IOF is a serious paper tiger. They can claim they're the most disciplined army in the Middle East or whatever as much as they want, but video footage shows an army in disarray, shooting at their own, not practising the most basic amount of safety. Remember the video from a few years ago of an IOF soldier picking up a flag someone planted on the Gaza border fence and just casually bringing it up to his mates before it exploded in his hands? All they know is to terrorize civilians, once the civilians start shooting back they don't know what to do.
Breaking news: Conscripts make shitty soldiers
Thats going to be such a cursed image once the Azov reaches their logical end in their mujahideen story
It will feel so nostalgic by the time he's gone full government-in-exile from a winecave in DC, making endless press releases that nobody bothers to circulate condemning the administrator of the Polish occupation forces for not giving air support to the Sons of Azov in their Bay of Pigs tribute act against Crimea.
The fact that several Zionist military facilities were overrun by Hamas on the first day in a state of complete surprise speaks a lot to this. Any half competent military should have sentries, patrols, etc. The fact that the Zionists were just sleeping and completely dependent on their alarm system is wild to me.
I think that was also surprising to Hamas. They may have just planned on holding a few soldiers so they can have leverage in negotiation, and expected a lot more resistance. Because well, wouldn't you?
If I was about to paraglide into Israel, I would definitely assume I was going to become a martyr from an anti-air missile. It makes a lot of sense why some people think Israel let the incursion happen.