I don't like this. I hope Castillo and Peru Libre can learn from the examples of Venezuela and Bolivia and build power outside the government.
Hoping for the best with Castillo for the Peruvian people’s sake, but this isn’t a good sign. You have to get control of the military immediately if you want to maintain power as a leftist.
Allende alone should have taught us all why this matters.
This isn't the first of Castillo's appointments to be forced out either. The daughter of the dictator & her crypto-fascist party has made it very clear they intend to keep doing this until they can use it as grounds to remove Castillo himself.
And now they've handed a branch of the military to themselves and the US State Department.
Unless this is Castillo pulling a Deng level move, we’re watching a slow motion coup of an overly idealistic DemSoc comrade. Goddamn shame.
The daughter of the dictator & her crypto-fascist party has made it very clear they intend to keep doing this until they can use it as grounds to remove Castillo himself.
She's gonna be locked up though
WTF? The military forces can remove and install government officials?
Likely not formally. Not certain on the details, but this could be Castillo making concessions when he really shouldn’t be. I’m hoping there’s details I’m not aware of and that he knows that revolutions are not made with silk gloves.
Handing a part of your military to someone sympathetic to the American state department is not a good idea.
Don't people keep complaining his associates are shining path sympathizers or something? probably just propaganda but I'm sure they know their history, but if you aren't in any position to stop the military demands you don't want to get shot by putting up meaningless resistance. it was a close election Castillo can't rely on the masses to fight against the military like Bolivia
I’m sure they know their history,
How much history does the average Bob knows? Yea, that
well if you lived in Latin America I think the average person would know about right wing coups
Don’t people keep complaining his associates are shining path sympathizers or something?
I think this last guy got removed because he had said in the past that he thought the Shining Path was funded by the US.
His associates had been more or less enemies of Shining Path and the military, think community defense among indigenous peasantry. The slander is particularly gross because of that, buying into Shining Path's claim to represent the natives as justification for murdering or discrediting them....which Shining Path also does to them
no, but they can threaten to do shit (namely a coup) until the government caves in. this is pretty common throughout Latin America as our armed forces still have a cold war mindset.
Eh the behavior is previous to the Cold War, like inherent to "democracies". Worldwide.
This is what millions/billions in military aid $$ from the USA does
I don't think building power outside the government is the way to go here. Chavez got support outside the government yes, but also then purged the military and much of his non-governmental support early on was for him as part of the army. Peru's military put Fujimori in power, and while he sorta ousted them in a weird situation, they have been the kingmakers in peru for a long time.
If Castillo is to succeed he needs to build up a socialist military. They will never stay neutral, Allende tried to rely on that, and they just merced his actually neutral military man when he wouldn't overthrow Allende. And then he put Pinochet in that role. The one time I can think of this actually turning out ok is Velasco but that was a very special situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbSnOEx3sjc
Return to tradition but this time put a new Velasco in power in the military ahead of time.
How do you purge the military without leverage? If they can force him to replace his foreign minister, do you think he can just snap his fingers and make the military do what he wants? The masses need to be mobilized and organized if he's going to have a chance to force concessions from them.
He can't snap his fingers, but just building outside support is even less likely to neutralize the army. The populace cannot be the leverage against a military whose MO has been butchering them. What good did outside pressure do when Shining Path was big? Oh it allowed the military to essentially take total control and have a blank check to do whatever they wanted. You are acting like I have a third eye for poo-pooing on the idea of rehashing Peru from the 80s and 90s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHqJDs3OuhQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a9_A1mr78U
This military in particular is not going to be shaken by what you suggest. The president at least has more leverage to appoint people who will side with him than protestors or strikers will. The Peruvian military has honed massacring peasants and irregulars for decades now. Castillo has friends with experience in community defense, they will never stand a fucking chance trying to have "leverage" over the military, but could be appointed to positions in it. Don't count on reduxing Bolivia in Peru
What good did outside pressure do when Shining Path was big? Oh it allowed the military to essentially take total control and have a blank check to do whatever they wanted.
Irrelevant to my point. They were trying to overthrow the government; they weren't in support of it.
they will never stand a fucking chance trying to have “leverage” over the military
If that's the case, then there is literally nothing he can do. The military will not just allow itself to be purged without being forced to. How we would he force them? By what mechanism?
It is very much relevant. You can't talk about non-government popular forces in Peru and the military and then call the defining conflict of Peru's military and modern politics "irrelevant"
You can’t talk about non-government popular forces in Peru and the military and then call the defining conflict of Peru’s military and modern politics “irrelevant”
Misrepresentation of what I'm saying. Irrelevant to my point.
Feel free to explain how the Shining Path somehow makes a mass movement in support of the socialist government in power somehow strengthen the reactionary military establishment while that socialist government is in power.
Or, again, what alternative methods there are for setting them in line.
Your point and the answers you want are two different things. Your point might be excluding something like Shining Path, but the materialist view cannot just disregard it for the sake of one's intent. It is fundamental to how the military in Peru exists in any circumstance, as well as the powers invested in it; which regardless of the kind of answers you want to be given, are pertinent to any talk about Peru's military and its power over government.
Its anti-materialist and incurious to regard it as some monadic thing instead of integral to all Peruvian politics. The military essentially ran the government due to Shining Path, fear of the militias led to people accepting more military oversight in government due to a perception of the government being unable to handle the conflict. This increases however really just targeted everyone, from the Tupac Amaru movement which was another communist insurgency, to the Rondas which Castillo is connected to, to just random peasants and natives. They set up Fujimori but Fujimori actually does their coup before they can and cuts them out of it, placing his own security forces in that position of instrument of terror.
By the time this ends the Peruvian military has spent decades armed to the teeth, trained to treat any protest movement or just peaceful peasants as a potential threat. To say nothing of a history of being carte blanche to commit whatever atrocities they want.
Just saying Castillo can only change things by creating external support and pressure simplifies the fact that in Peru the military knows it is calling the shots, the people know it calls the shots, and NO ONE wants to test a "mass movement" pressuring the military directly. It doesn't matter if a socialist is in office, if you are worried enough that the powers of president are not enough to nullify the army, then you cannot also act flabberghasted at the idea that that socialist government being in power wont curtail the reactionary military.
Which is it? Is the socialist government enough that the reactionary military won't be able to put down a mass movement, or is it powerful enough that Castillo cannot just purge it? I am not saying mass movements are bad, what I am saying is just pointing to two very different and unique circumstances in Latin America and saying "they should do that" is simplistic and dismissive of the material conditions on the ground in Peru. Bolivia and MAS are not really comparable to Chavez gaining power and holding onto the military support, and neither are applicable to what would be necessary or possible in Peru. Shining Path, Velasco, and the legacy of Fujimori are more pertinent to this moment in Peru than what worked for MAS.
Pressure is good, but don't ask a question or whatever if you just want agreement with your conceit. MAS and Chavez are not a transient policy. They had a thousand factors and distinctions, they can't just be plugged into Peru or used as a mic drop. The Peruvian military has more power than the reactionary military brass of those nations, and specifically have avoided being really brought down by mass movements, rather offering up their political agents and promising to do better etc. Mass movements are gonna be needed, but any change while a socialist is in power and perhaps even while a civil war is not raging is going to have to be done with the mechanisms of the state to put people loyal to the movement in military posts. The military cannot be allowed to pretend to be a neutral arbiter, and if they are going to not be able to make demands, they will need to become a tool for the government not the other way around
Its anti-materialist and incurious to regard it as some monadic thing instead of integral to all Peruvian politics. ...
Yes. I'm not saying it's not relevant to Peruvian politics but that it's not relevant to my very, very basic point that Castillo and Peru Libre will need a mass base in order to accomplish their goals, because that is true of all socialist movements. Literally every successful socialist movement in history has organized and developed a power base outside of the bourgeois state. You could give me a dissertation on the influence of the Shining Path on Peruvian politics and it wouldn't have any bearing on that very, very basic fact. A failed guerilla war doesn't mean that it's no longer necessary for a socialist administration to build power outside the bourgeois state.
Just saying Castillo can only change things by creating external support and pressure simplifies the fact that in Peru the military knows it is calling the shots, the people know it calls the shots, and NO ONE wants to test a “mass movement” pressuring the military directly.
Well then it's good that I'm not saying that. I am not saying that all Castillo needs is external support and I am not saying that the public needs to directly target the military at this point in time. But since what you say here is true, how do you think Castillo alone could directly challenge the military right now and win? Again, for the third time, what power does he and his small party have that could be used to stop the military from calling the shots? This is not a rhetorical question.
My take was very, very simple: Peru Libre is a small party that's proven popular enough to get Castillo the presidency, but it is direly limited in what it can do without a large power base. Getting that is of course a whole other thing and I have no idea what that would involve in detail. But a mass movement is absolutely necessary (necesssary, not sufficient) in any and all class struggles. Under no circumstances is it bad or unhelpful for socialists to organize the masses.
Which is it? Is the socialist government enough that the reactionary military won’t be able to put down a mass movement, or is it powerful enough that Castillo cannot just purge it?
- That depends on a huge range of variables, also bearing in mind that it isn't all-or-nothing; it isn't just "rally to overthrow the military" or "stay home and let the president have a polite conversation with the military to install all of his favorite people and fire theirs".
- Yes. If they call the shots like you say, if they can force the government to install their preferred foreign minister, then it's reasonable to assume that they can just tell him to fuck off when he tells them to restructure their whole hierarchy. In other words, to accomplish the goal of purging the military like you suggest (and so do I; why would you assume I'm opposed to this?), he needs some kind of leverage. To make any lasting gains, he'll need institutional support, and he's not likely to draw a ton from most of the bourgeoisie. Unless I'm wrong and the capitalists over there just love their new socialist president.
Pressure is good, but don’t ask a question or whatever if you just want agreement with your conceit.
I said they needed a power base outside the government to challenge the entrenched power of the current capitalist state and you said no, so I asked what other mechanisms of challenging their power that you had in mind. Purging the military requires power to accomplish in the first place; where will it come from if not the masses? This is also not a rhetorical question. How do you get from point A (military overruling the government) to point C (government purging the military)? What pro-socialist forces within the government would be enough to tip the scales in the other direction?
is going to have to be done with the mechanisms of the state to put people loyal to the movement in military posts. The military cannot be allowed to pretend to be a neutral arbiter, and if they are going to not be able to make demands, they will need to become a tool for the government not the other way around
And this is exactly my problem. If the mechanisms of the state are hostile and the military is not a neutral arbiter, is not willing to hand over power voluntarily, then it stands to reason that he can't just say, "I'm the president, get rid of the elements of the military that I don't like." The state is an instrument of class rule and doesn't allow itself to be taken over by another class just because they asked nicely, filled out the proper paperwork, etc. Literally the only possible means of influencing it to exact concessions is through some form of struggle, which relies on the mobilization of the masses. I'm not talking about armed guerillas and I'm not even necessarily talking about protests (although Peru hasn't exactly been shy about those recently!). And, again, it isn't just about mass struggle, but also a million other variables (which I thought would be an obvious enough thing that I wouldn't have to specify it).
Is there any chance of Peru building a socialist military though? Not sure how much on the ground support there is for Castillo as there is for leaders in Boliva, Venezuela.
A military is more under the executive's control (appointing and firing officers) than the general populace, who are also influenced by broader political trends and outside media. If, like in Bolivia, there was a decades-long mobilization process which was able to defend leftist gains, then yes popular support matters. However, Peru is predominantly reactionary given its history, so either way would be mad tough
The navy mostly known for "getting their ass handed to them by Chile" are going to call themselves patriotic for this.
I wonder if he could call in military support from allies (China if they're willing, but as it's not really their style maybe Russia, or Venezuela?) to keep the military from rebelling while he forces out right wing ideologues and replaces them with socialists?
Didn't Russia send troops to Venezuela when Guaido was trying to do a coup?
I feel like China generally doesn't like to get militarily involved in anything, which makes sense given how much of the Soviet economy had to be devoted to military spending to protect themselves from the West.
with Lula winning in Brazil next year, that should help too.
just a little though, lula is already going around the country making deals with the most disgusting right wingers (as usual), i expect his next term to be even more neolib than the first
still voting tho... in the current situation if lula keeps the universities running i'm honestly good (don't call me a lib i'm just entering college and i'd like to be able to finish it)
succdem traitor who destroys left wing credibility
the vast majority of communists here pretty much consider him as such already
he has always been a liberal and openly so, it's just that his rhetoric used to be strong and the propaganda pounced on it
Everyone else step away from the lathe, it's @ComradeCmdrPiggy's turn.
China did that with the Indian communist organizations during the farmer protests last year to urge them not to split lol
That is a huge problem with Indian Communists
