Image is of the Te Pati Maori (Maori Party) cofounders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. They have 6 of the 123 seats in the New Zealand parliament.
Officially confirming that the Republican primaries were a gigantic waste of time for everybody involved, Trump has massively beat everybody else in Iowa, and will very obviously be the Republican candidate for 2024. Given the abysmal state of the US economy (for everybody who isn't in the top 1-10%, which is mainly what national statistics reflect when they aren't telling blatant falsehoods), it's more plausible than ever that Trump may indeed once again become President - though I personally refuse to predict one way or another due to how volatile politics and geopolitics currently are. Project 2025 is coming, folks - either as the official Republican governance program, or as what the Democrats will do in 2026 after the midterms, stating that they have no other choice and have to reach across the aisle as they are the Adults In The Room™.
In other news...
Late last year, New Zealand voted in a new and very right-wing government, composed of the center-right National Party, the libertarian ACT Party (ACT stands for the "Association of Consumers and Taxpayers", good lord), and the fascist New Zealand First party. By what I can tell, this was the well-trodden path of "Vaguely center-left party does neoliberal austerity and causes a recession and workers fucking hated it and voted in a different party out of desperation," though the flooding and cyclones did add challenges to Chris Hipkins' short reign after Jacinda Ardern resigned.
It's worth noting that Hipkins was at least fairly China-friendly, meeting up with Xi Jinping on a five-day visit in the summer. They still do the whole "We have concerns about human rights" thing, but of all the countries of the imperial core, New Zealand is - or, perhaps, was - one of the most amicable. In 2021, China was New Zealand's single largest trading partner, with a third of exports going to China (more than Australia, the US, Japan, and South Korea combined), and they receive 22% of their imports from China too, more than any other single country.
Christopher Luxon, the new Prime Minister and sentient thumb, has said that he is exploring a closer relationship with AUKUS:
Luxon said New Zealand was interested in becoming involved in AUKUS Pillar 2: a commitment between the three partners to develop and share advanced military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and hypersonics.
“We’ll work our way through that over the course of next year as we understand it more and think about what the opportunities may be for us,” Luxon said. “AUKUS is a very important element in ensuring we’ve got stability and peace in the region.”
This is not to say that Hipkins wanted nothing to do with AUKUS or Western organizations aimed generally against China - in fact, pre election, "he was open to conversations about joining Pillar II of AUKUS". But the current government is pushing down on the accelerator pedal.
The left-wing Maori party, Te Pati Maori, has stated that they want New Zealand to remain non-aligned, as joining AUKUS would erode the sovereignty of the country:
As Maori we cannot allow our sovereignty to be determined by others, whether they are in Canberra or Washington. Aotearoa should not act as Pacific spy base in the wars of imperial powers. Joining AUKUS will severely undermine our country’s sovereignty, constitution, and ability to remain nuclear free. There is too much at stake for our government to make a commitment of this magnitude without a democratic process.
In general, the party leaders of Te Pati Maori want New Zealand to be the "Switzerland of the Pacific", which is perhaps not the greatest analogy given all the problems Switzerland had and has, but we understand the intended meaning of desiring neutrality.
The Country of the Week is New Zealand! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Hearing lots of concerning rumors about Israel moving a lot of troops and equipment north. Lebanon may be heating up soon
every day I bounce between "there's no way Israel is so profoundly stupid that they'd try and attack Hezbollah again" and "nope, the Israeli leadership is actually that stupid"
Israel was stupid enough to try and do a ground invasion of Gaza so who knows. They could have easily just bombed them indefinitely with much less losses on their end and much less international outcry
I think partially it was the rock bottom fact that you cannot win without clearing the tunnels, which you can’t do with just bombs. Infantry HAVE to go in.
Who says anything about “win” militarily? Israel’s actual goal is not to destroy Hamas, it’s to destroy Gaza and drive its population out (or kill it). This could have been accomplished with bombs.
You really can’t exterminate an entire population by bombing them exclusively. 20,000+ deaths is a tragedy obviously, but compared to the total population of Gaza shows that even when Israel goes mask off it really can’t do what it wants, especially considering the most militant among them are holding off the Israeli military. It also doesn’t make sense as an indefinite strategy considering the bombing campaign is what causing the international outcry in the first place. This is why I go back to the tunnels and the defeat of Hamas, which I agree is not the primary focus (the extermination/exodus of the Palestinian people is) hamas is still a huge thorn in their side that has to be dealt with if any of their other plans are going to be successful. If you cannot clear out the tunnels how can you defeat Hamas? If you cannot defeat Hamas how can you control Gaza? If you can’t control Gaza how can you build a beach resort or whatever it is they want to do with it? Now the situation is even more dire for Israel because in less than 6 months they’ve gone from one of the most feared militaries in the region to possibly having the entire Zionist project crumbling to dust depending on how a wider conflict could break out.
Hopefully I’m making sense, but I really don’t think it’s possible to defeat the Palestinians at this point much less control all of Gaza.
In my recollection during the initial bombing campaigns people kind of got bored and stopped caring about it until there was a ground invasion of Gaza, which renewed the fervor and allowed the resistance victories & also crossed a bunch of countries redlines (don’t invade Gaza)
Invasion of Gaza led to an escalation in the amount of international pressure applied to Israel, not a reduction
I don’t agree with that assessment really. It was the very indiscriminate nature of the bombing that led to people in general caring about the Palestinian people at all really. Also the time between Oct 7th and the ground invasion was like a couple weeks.
Sometimes it's less about what the right move is and more about what the move is that keeps the situation dire enough that no one has time to oust you for your incompetence.
The US just signed a deal for a bunch of aircraft with Israel a couple of days ago. This seems to be their next goal. The ICJ decision was going to be the only bad news for them, after a couple of days that will be out of the news everywhere. I guess they won't even bother to engineer some kind of a false flag attack.
Watch the US get jets to Israel in like 3 days after they still haven't delivered a single F16 to Ukraine after years of stalling
The thing I'm a little bewildered by is: can't the runways just be hit? Or the planes struck when they have to land and refuel/rearm?
In Ukraine this seemed to be what Russia did, but the sheer size of the country meant that Ukraine could inevitably find a different place to land their planes, and much of the country was out of range of a lot of Russian missiles (though Russia could hit anywhere with their longer-range missiles as they've proven with strikes on Lvov etc). Israel does not have the advantage of size or considerable depth.
Yes. The runways can be hit.
It's surprisingly hard to hit actual planes on the runways. You need realtime information on specific location of the players and extremely accurate long range missiles. It's accessible to Russia, it's less accessible to powers in this region. They're more likely to just repeatedly bomb runways.
US will give them access to other bases and aircraft carrier use. Not to mention air to air refuelling.
https://www.rt.com/news/591384-israel-poised-to-invade-lebanon/
I'm thinking the next 30 days Isreal will escalate as much as possible. They're becoming desperate. They know that they must wrap it up B. I doubt that they can .
looks like Israel is about to
. Let them, and hezbollah will wipe the floor with these literal demons
Hezbollah wants this I’m pretty sure their border probing was to provoke a response of exactly this nature and draw IDF away from Gaza
100%. It's why they haven't escalated while still being irritating enough to require eventual retaliation. I can't see Bibi's gvmt lasting another few
monthsyearssweet
If you're losing one war, the very intelligent move is to start a second one. I think Sunzi said that
“What about second breakfast?”